[RE-wrenches] Where is the pv market headed?

[Jeff Yago]

Being in a state with fairly low electric rates and no state or utility
solar incentives, this most likely does not give me the same perspective of
this current solar industry as say, somebody in California or New Jersey.
However, I started in the solar business during the early 1970's and am
seeing the same market trends that trashed the solar thermal business that
took over ten years to recover.

 

I am seeing a major downturn in solar in general, most likely the result of
the country's general economic downturn and most Federal grants running out.
I am seeing most of the cream solar projects (clients with money and wanting
best of best) fading away, while the current shoppers are only interested in
lowest cost and think all solar products and brands are the same.  No doubt
this is being fueled by bottom dweller internet pricing of Chinese modules
and inverters which they are checking out prior to your sales call.   While
lower module costs can help stimulate this market, lower material costs also
leads to major cuts in your profit margin, and this means fewer hours
available for a quality installation and to pay overhead.

 

I am also seeing more commercial and institutional clients "shopping" their
projects to multiple solar firms as turn-key without providing any design
drawings or specifications, and  requiring each bidder to do all their own
up-front site work and system design at no cost just to arrive at their bid.
This means there is no way to compare apples and apples between firms as
each will size and design the system anyway they want using whatever quality
of materials they want or have in stock.   The low bidder always gets the
job using the cheapest materials, cheap labor, and poor system performance
since there is nothing being provided to level the playing field.

 

Finally, like I saw in the 70's with tax credits based on what a system
costs and not if it actually works ( feed-in tariffs better),  many quality
pv  installers are being forced out by aggressive internet and phone sales
techniques by national marketing firms with "sign now!" contracts which are
then job shopped to any local installer willing to work for base labor rates
and almost no profit.  A satellite view taken years ago has replaced the
site visit to scope out the project and you cannot identify any potential
structural or electrical problems from a flyover.  Many times systems are
installed by non-local traveling crews that are given a strict not-to-exceed
set of hours on site and then on to the next project regardless of any site
problems they may have encountered.  As my old boss would tell us - "just
make it fit!"  We went through a lot of hammers and hacksaw blades back
then!

 

I don't know where we are headed, but I think I have been on this road
before and I did not like where it went the first time.

 

Jeff Yago

 

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