[RE-wrenches] Prism Solar (was) The Genie Lens
Joel Davidson
joel.davidson at sbcglobal.net
Sun Aug 15 17:28:15 PDT 2010
Hello Mick,
Thank you for your kind words. Perpetual motion has been co-opted by the lunatic fringe so now I tell people that PV is the most reliable electric generator in the known universe.
Working in the PV industry has given me the opportunity to hang out with some really wonderful people and Rick Lewandowski is among the best.
Regarding PV reliability, I had the opportunity to hear industry champions (like Chuck Whitaker) at the 2006 "Accelerated Aging Testing in Photovoltaics" conference. For a summary go to http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/pv_accelerated_aging_summary.pdf
I share your frustration about PV's marginal profitability, but the industry is not to blame for the "race to the bottom." Like nuclear power people, PV people have been promising clean, reliable, low-cost electricity. Unlike nuclear power, PV had no weapons industry to prop it up with billions of dollars of subsidies for decades. Instead, PV got a few hundred million for space cells R&D and then was turned out by the Reagan administration to fend for itself in the marketplace. 50 years later, the nuclear power industry is still getting billions every year, but the end-game is near and PV is winning. See http://www.ncwarn.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/NCW-SolarReport_final1.pdf
Joel Davidson
----- Original Message -----
From: Mick Abraham
To: RE-wrenches ; re-markets at lists.re-wrenches.org
Sent: Sunday, August 15, 2010 4:23 PM
Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] Prism Solar (was) The Genie Lens
Ever since buying an early edition of the Davidson/Komp book in the 80's, I knew that Joel D. had a genuine love for PV technology plus a prominent position in the industry.
Joel would not recall a brief phone conversation that I had with him in that era, in which he stated that "a PV module is the closest thing we have to perpetual motion". That observation...and the infectious enthusiasm behind it...made a lasting impression on me.
It's nice to be able to virtually "hang out" with Joel and other industry pioneers.
*********************************
The Prism Solar technology (to which Joel points) seems to ring the appropriate notes:
* Similar size per rated watt compared to crystalline
* Lower production cost per rated watt
* Projections of higher kWh delivery per rated watt over time
* Technology that doesn't claim to be magical but which can be understood by regular people
* Company principals with long running solar background...from which we may assume that they are familiar with the difficulties that can arise when a product is parked outside for years.
* ...and Joel's remarks about degradation give basic confirmation that the product would survive long term. We need more of such confirmation, such as accelerated life cycle testing, real modules with UL listings, long warranty from strong backers, etc. but it's a good start.
*****************************************
What else would I want to see from a new module technology? I would want to see a better model for marketing, sales, & distribution than what we now have. (I am posting this reply under the RE-Markets list, as well.)
The manufacturers of conventional crystalline are in a "race to the bottom" because their products have been commoditized, and the profitability of wholesalers, value added resellers & contractors has been pounded down in the process. It's "wholesale to the public" out there.
Some (perhaps to include Joel D.) actually may rejoice to see the precipitous price drops because it does mean "more PV". "Power to the People", as one other PV pioneer on this list had used as his corporate slogan...and I'm all for spreading power around.
Consider, too, however, that profitable retailers...profitable installers...can be the network through which a new technology gains acceptance. Those same "trading partner" type companies can ensure quality deployments and good response to concerns or problems at the end user level, but only if they can make a good profit by virtue of the business relationship. Profitability for their trading partners should matter to a PV manufacturer, and that's where leapfrog type technology can play an important role.
A company such as Prism Solar must consider what to do with its breakthrough PV technology. They can slug it out with First Solar at yard-sale pricing...and if the mega-millions are there for enough production volume that could pencil out. OR: they could write blanket orders from the many PV wholesalers and stuff the pipelines...multiple pipelines which would ensure low markup/low profitability at the wholesale level. Then stand back as the wholesalers stuff similar multiple pipelines at the retail level, with similar "downward pounding" effect on the end price for the product.
OR: A company with real breakthrough technology could simply beat the price for conventional crystalline by, say, 25% but blend in some diligence to ensure that their trading partners in the field would not find the same products being rolled out "wholesale to anybody with a computer". What the trading partners don't receive in yard sale pricing would be offset by the ability to sell their wares at a fair profit without the pricing pressure which is now so prevalent in the "mainstream" solar technologies.
In the latter scenario, the mfr. could make just as much money while not working as hard, because their incremental profit per kilowatt would be higher. The difficulty is in controlling the behavior of the retailers, contractors, etc. but many other manufacturers in "mature" industries have managed to do just that.
Some solar businesses would just have to be "crossed off" as possible trading partners because of the way they have chosen to operate their businesses. Others could be requested to not advertise a price lower than the "minimum advertised price" for the product. Discipline would be needed on the part of the marketing people, also: they would need to be ready to cancel product access for any rogue operators who threaten the well being of the entire group.
*************************************
It will be fun to see new developments in solar technology, but it would be even more satisfying if technical improvements are also coupled with marketing methods which take a more long term view.
If I recall correctly, the old PV NETWORK NEWS publication was founded by Joel Davidson, then shepherded carefully by Paul Wilkins for many years. Here's a blurb from that publication, circa 1985:
"Solar electricity: mature technology, immature market".
Jolliness,
Mick Abraham, Proprietor
www.abrahamsolar.com
Voice: 970-731-4675
On Fri, Aug 13, 2010 at 10:36 AM, Joel Davidson <joel.davidson at sbcglobal.net> wrote:
Wrenches,
Rick Lewandowski (founder of SunWize) and his team have been making PV modules with an optical film. See http://www.prismsolar.com/ Prism Solar's primary advantage is less PV cell material lowers cost.
How Prism Solar differs from SolOptics:
- film is laminated with the cell so it does not get wet,
- holographic material is UV stable and is used in extraterrestrial applications,
- tests have shown PS holograms degrade less than 0.04% per year compared to silicon cells at 0.5-1% per year,
- angular and spectral multiplexed holograms result in cooler running cells and useful light down to 0.25 suns.
Rick has worked several years to get Prism Solar ready for primetime. See their video and live test results and tell me what you think.
Best regards,
Joel Davidson
----- Original Message ----- From: "Mark Dickson" <Mark at OasisMontana.com>
To: "'RE-wrenches'" <re-wrenches at lists.re-wrenches.org>
Sent: Thursday, August 12, 2010 9:43 AM
Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] The Genie Lens
They claim that their film "should" last the 20 year lifespan of the
modules. With most warranties at 25 years and modules lasting much longer
than that, that claim does not do them much justice. I can't imagine
modules will work very well with a tarnished or degrading film on them.
Imagine how pissed a customer would be trying to peel that crap off after a
few years getting baked in the sun.
I am sure the module manus would love to disqualify any warranty claims that
came back with this stuff on it.
Also, they claim a 4-12.5% increase.
Best regards,
Mark Dickson,
NABCEP Certified Solar PV Installer T
Oasis Montana Inc.
-----Original Message-----
From: re-wrenches-bounces at lists.re-wrenches.org
[mailto:re-wrenches-bounces at lists.re-wrenches.org] On Behalf Of Peter
Parrish
Sent: Thursday, August 12, 2010 10:17 AM
To: 'RE-wrenches'
Subject: [RE-wrenches] The Genie Lens
Anybody know anything about these claims?
SolOptics, the solar division of Genie Lens, has created a new lens design
that improves solar PV performance by 12.5 percent. The new thin-film design
can be applied to any PV module, just like a sticker. The new design is
created by the company's ray tracing software that embosses microstructures
onto thin polymer film. That film can then be applied to solar panels much
like tinting film can be applied to a window. In testing, the
microstructures in the lens improved PV efficiency by 10 to 12.5 percent.
I think the claim of a "lens" is complete hogwash. As for being an
anti-reflective coating, that might work, but reliability would be my
concern (UV, heat, moisture). Think how many tinted car windows you have
seen with blisters all over them?
I am posting this for a client who is a really dedicated solar enthusiast
and occasionally emails me with questions about solar technology.
- Peter
Peter T. Parrish, Ph.D., President
California Solar Engineering, Inc.
820 Cynthia Ave., Los Angeles, CA 90065
CA Lic. 854779, NABCEP Cert. 031806-26
peter.parrish at calsolareng.com
Ph 323-258-8883, Mobile 323-839-6108, Fax 323-258-8885
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