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<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Hello Mick,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Thank you for your kind words. Perpetual motion has
been co-opted by the lunatic fringe so now I tell people that PV is the
most reliable electric generator in the known universe.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Wor</FONT><FONT size=2 face=Arial>king in the PV
industry has given me the opportunity to hang out with some really
wonderful people and Rick Lewandowski is among the best.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>Regarding PV reliability, I had the opportunity to hear industry
champions (like Chuck Whitaker) at the 2006 "Accelerated Aging Testing in
Photovoltaics" conference. For a summary go to <A
href="http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/pv_accelerated_aging_summary.pdf">http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/pv_accelerated_aging_summary.pdf</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>I share your frustration about PV's marginal profitability, but
the industry is not to blame for the "race to the bottom." Like nuclear
power people, PV people have been promising clean, reliable, low-cost
electricity. Unlike nuclear power, PV had no weapons industry to prop
it up with billions of dollars of subsidies for decades. Instead, PV
got a few hundred million for space cells R&D and then was turned out by the
Reagan administration to fend for itself in the marketplace. 50 years later, the
nuclear power industry is still getting billions every year, but the
end-game is near and PV is winning. See <A
href="http://www.ncwarn.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/NCW-SolarReport_final1.pdf">http://www.ncwarn.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/NCW-SolarReport_final1.pdf</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Joel Davidson</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=mick@abrahamsolar.com href="mailto:mick@abrahamsolar.com">Mick
Abraham</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
title=re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org
href="mailto:re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org">RE-wrenches</A> ; <A
title=re-markets@lists.re-wrenches.org
href="mailto:re-markets@lists.re-wrenches.org">re-markets@lists.re-wrenches.org</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, August 15, 2010 4:23
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RE-wrenches] Prism Solar
(was) The Genie Lens</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Ever since buying an early edition of the Davidson/Komp book in
the 80's, I knew that Joel D. had a genuine love for PV technology plus a
prominent position in the industry.
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Joel would not recall a brief phone conversation that I had with him in
that era, in which he stated that "a PV module is the closest thing we have to
perpetual motion". That observation...and the infectious enthusiasm behind
it...made a lasting impression on me. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>It's nice to be able to virtually "hang out" with Joel and other industry
pioneers.
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>*********************************</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>The Prism Solar technology (to which Joel points) seems to ring the
appropriate notes:</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>* Similar size per rated watt compared to crystalline</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>* Lower production cost per rated watt</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>* Projections of higher kWh delivery per rated watt over time</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>* Technology that doesn't claim to be magical but which can be understood
by regular people</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>* Company principals with long running solar background...from which we
may assume that they are familiar with the difficulties that can arise when a
product is parked outside for years.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>* ...and Joel's remarks about degradation give basic confirmation that
the product would survive long term. We need more of such confirmation, such
as accelerated life cycle testing, real modules with UL listings, long
warranty from strong backers, etc. but it's a good start. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>*****************************************</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>What else would I want to see from a new module technology? I would want
to see a better model for marketing, sales, & distribution than what we
now have. (I am posting this reply under the RE-Markets list, as
well.) </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>The manufacturers of conventional crystalline are in a "race to the
bottom" because their products have been commoditized, and the profitability
of wholesalers, value added resellers & contractors has been pounded down
in the process. It's "wholesale to the public" out there. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Some (perhaps to include Joel D.) actually may rejoice to see the
precipitous price drops because it does mean "more PV". "Power to the People",
as one other PV pioneer on this list had used as his corporate slogan...and
I'm all for spreading power around. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Consider, too, however, that profitable retailers...profitable
installers...can be the network through which a new technology gains
acceptance. Those same "trading partner" type companies can ensure quality
deployments and good response to concerns or problems at the end user level,
but only if they can make a good profit by virtue of the business
relationship. Profitability for their trading partners should matter to a PV
manufacturer, and that's where leapfrog type technology can play an important
role. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>A company such as Prism Solar must consider what to do with its
breakthrough PV technology. They can slug it out with First Solar at yard-sale
pricing...and if the mega-millions are there for enough production volume that
could pencil out. OR: they could write blanket orders from the many PV
wholesalers and stuff the pipelines...multiple pipelines which would ensure
low markup/low profitability at the wholesale level. Then stand back as the
wholesalers stuff similar multiple pipelines at the retail level, with similar
"downward pounding" effect on the end price for the product.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>OR: A company with real breakthrough technology could simply beat the
price for conventional crystalline by, say, 25% but blend in some diligence to
ensure that their trading partners in the field would not find the same
products being rolled out "wholesale to anybody with a computer". What the
trading partners don't receive in yard sale pricing would be offset by the
ability to sell their wares at a fair profit without the pricing pressure
which is now so prevalent in the "mainstream" solar technologies.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>In the latter scenario, the mfr. could make just as much money while not
working as hard, because their incremental profit per kilowatt would be
higher. The difficulty is in controlling the behavior of the retailers,
contractors, etc. but many other manufacturers in "mature" industries have
managed to do just that. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Some solar businesses would just have to be "crossed off" as possible
trading partners because of the way they have chosen to operate their
businesses. Others could be requested to not advertise a price lower than the
"minimum advertised price" for the product. Discipline would be needed on the
part of the marketing people, also: they would need to be ready to cancel
product access for any rogue operators who threaten the well being of the
entire group. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>*************************************</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>It will be fun to see new developments in solar technology, but it would
be even more satisfying if technical improvements are also coupled with
marketing methods which take a more long term view. </DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>If I recall correctly, the old <U>PV NETWORK NEWS</U> publication
was founded by Joel Davidson, then shepherded carefully by Paul Wilkins for
many years. Here's a blurb from that publication, circa 1985:</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>"Solar electricity: mature technology, immature market".</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Jolliness, </DIV>
<DIV><BR clear=all>Mick Abraham, Proprietor<BR><A
href="http://www.abrahamsolar.com"
target=_blank>www.abrahamsolar.com</A><BR><BR>Voice: 970-731-4675<BR><BR><BR>
<DIV class=gmail_quote>On Fri, Aug 13, 2010 at 10:36 AM, Joel Davidson <SPAN
dir=ltr><<A href="mailto:joel.davidson@sbcglobal.net"
target=_blank>joel.davidson@sbcglobal.net</A>></SPAN> wrote:<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex"
class=gmail_quote>Wrenches,<BR><BR>Rick Lewandowski (founder of SunWize) and
his team have been making PV modules with an optical film. See <A
href="http://www.prismsolar.com/"
target=_blank>http://www.prismsolar.com/</A> Prism Solar's primary
advantage is less PV cell material lowers cost.<BR><BR>How Prism Solar
differs from SolOptics:<BR>- film is laminated with the cell so it does not
get wet,<BR>- holographic material is UV stable and is used in
extraterrestrial applications,<BR>- tests have shown PS holograms degrade
less than 0.04% per year compared to silicon cells at 0.5-1% per year,<BR>-
angular and spectral multiplexed holograms result in cooler running cells
and useful light down to 0.25 suns.<BR><BR>Rick has worked several years to
get Prism Solar ready for primetime. See their video and live test results
and tell me what you think.<BR><BR>Best regards,<BR>Joel
Davidson<BR><BR>----- Original Message ----- From: "Mark Dickson"
<Mark@OasisMontana.com><BR>To: "'RE-wrenches'" <<A
href="mailto:re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org"
target=_blank>re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org</A>><BR>Sent: Thursday,
August 12, 2010 9:43 AM<BR>Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] The Genie
Lens<BR><BR><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; PADDING-LEFT: 1ex"
class=gmail_quote>They claim that their film "should" last the 20 year
lifespan of the<BR>modules. With most warranties at 25 years and
modules lasting much longer<BR>than that, that claim does not do them much
justice. I can't imagine<BR>modules will work very well with a
tarnished or degrading film on them.<BR>Imagine how pissed a customer
would be trying to peel that crap off after a<BR>few years getting baked
in the sun.<BR>I am sure the module manus would love to disqualify any
warranty claims that<BR>came back with this stuff on it.<BR><BR>Also, they
claim a 4-12.5% increase.<BR><BR>Best regards,<BR><BR>Mark
Dickson,<BR>NABCEP Certified Solar PV Installer T<BR>Oasis Montana Inc.
<DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR><BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: <A
href="mailto:re-wrenches-bounces@lists.re-wrenches.org"
target=_blank>re-wrenches-bounces@lists.re-wrenches.org</A><BR>[mailto:<A
href="mailto:re-wrenches-bounces@lists.re-wrenches.org"
target=_blank>re-wrenches-bounces@lists.re-wrenches.org</A>] On Behalf Of
Peter<BR>Parrish<BR>Sent: Thursday, August 12, 2010 10:17 AM<BR>To:
'RE-wrenches'<BR>Subject: [RE-wrenches] The Genie Lens<BR><BR>Anybody know
anything about these claims?<BR><BR>SolOptics, the solar division of Genie
Lens, has created a new lens design<BR>that improves solar PV performance
by 12.5 percent. The new thin-film design<BR>can be applied to any PV
module, just like a sticker. The new design is<BR>created by the company's
ray tracing software that embosses microstructures<BR>onto thin polymer
film. That film can then be applied to solar panels much<BR>like tinting
film can be applied to a window. In testing, the<BR>microstructures in the
lens improved PV efficiency by 10 to 12.5 percent.<BR><BR>I think the
claim of a "lens" is complete hogwash. As for being an<BR>anti-reflective
coating, that might work, but reliability would be my<BR>concern (UV,
heat, moisture). Think how many tinted car windows you have<BR>seen with
blisters all over them?<BR><BR>I am posting this for a client who is a
really dedicated solar enthusiast<BR>and occasionally emails me with
questions about solar technology.<BR><BR>- Peter<BR><BR><BR>Peter T.
Parrish, Ph.D., President<BR>California Solar Engineering, Inc.<BR>820
Cynthia Ave., Los Angeles, CA 90065<BR>CA Lic. 854779, NABCEP Cert.
031806-26<BR><A href="mailto:peter.parrish@calsolareng.com"
target=_blank>peter.parrish@calsolareng.com</A><BR>Ph 323-258-8883, Mobile
323-839-6108, Fax
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