[RE-wrenches] future market crystal ball

[Wind-sun.com]

We saw the same thing, and it is like deja vu all over again.

And I totally agree on this part: ". I think any government related "gift" 
always brings more problems than they are worth, as sooner or later there 
will be more forms to fill out, more fees, inspections, approvals, and other 
strings that are always attached.."

Subsidies and "gifts" always distort the true market, inviting profiteers 
and fly by night operations. We are seeing them already. This applies to 
solar panels just as much as it does to ethanol, corn, or oil.

And the increased government regulation started hitting at least two years 
ago. We will be stuck with those regulations forever, but eventually the 
subsidies will go away. While panel prices have dropped somewhat, we have 
seen a huge increase in things like permit costs, general (often useless) 
red tape, etc.

..................................................................................................
Northern Arizona Wind & Sun - Electricity From The Sun

----- Original Message ----- 
From: " Jeff Yago" <jryago at netscape.com>
To: "RE-wrenches" <re-wrenches at lists.re-wrenches.org>
Sent: Wednesday, February 04, 2009 10:30 AM
Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] future market crystal ball


> Being in the solar business during the first solar tax credits during 
> Jimmy Carter, I see the same things going on again now with the new tax 
> credits. I think those who do not know history will repeat it. On one hand 
> solar tax credits increase interest and "buzz" with the general public and 
> will cause the fence-sitters to finally make the purchase. But I also 
> think this will only affects the fence sitters, so after the initial 
> increase in sales as a result of the tax credits, the market will settle 
> back to sales based on actual need. Tax credits also have a downside, like 
> bringing some marketers and installers into the market who have little or 
> no experience, who do poor quality installations that get highly 
> publicized, and who will use tax credits to hide their much higher profit 
> margins. I think any government related "gift" always brings more problems 
> than they are worth, as sooner or later there will be more forms to fill 
> out, more fees, inspections, approvals, and other strings that are always 
> attached - there are no free lunches and no free tax credits.