[RE-wrenches] future market crystal ball

[Jeff Yago]

Being in the solar business during the first solar tax credits during Jimmy Carter, I see the same things going on again now with the new tax credits. I think those who do not know history will repeat it. On one hand solar tax credits increase interest and "buzz" with the general public and will cause the fence-sitters to finally make the purchase. But I also think this will only affects the fence sitters, so after the initial increase in sales as a result of the tax credits, the market will settle back to sales based on actual need. Tax credits also have a downside, like bringing some marketers and installers into the market who have little or no experience, who do poor quality installations that get highly publicized, and who will use tax credits to hide their much higher profit margins. I think any government related "gift" always brings more problems than they are worth, as sooner or later there will be more forms to fill out, more fees, inspections, approvals, and other strings that are always attached - there are no free lunches and no free tax credits.
 
Yes, the world economic downturn will force lower module prices as manufacturers stuck with excess inventory drop prices or go out of business. No like current very low gas prices, this will be temporary as without profits, even those barely hanging on will drop out, and we will be left with another market correction giving us higher prices after excess inventory is sold off and manufacturing capacity drops again. Yes,now is a good time to stock up with all those quality modules that are being sold at or below cost while they last, but I would not be out there telling the general public that solar systems are now going to cost 25% less.  

Since my firm does all system types including off-grid and battery backup, our business has stayed very strong simply because some people actually need an alternate source of power for many reasons other than reducing their utility bills or saving the planet. For our clients, the tax credit is just icing on the cake, but not the cake. I think those solar installers who only know how to install grid-tie systems and are expecting the tax credits to make them profitable may need to re-think their business model. 

Now where did I put that crystal ball? 

Jeff Yago



_____________________________________________________________
Netscape.  Just the Net You Need.