[RE-wrenches] Chinese solar cells and modules and pricing

[Joel Davidson]

I have a lot of respect for Bill, not just because he sometimes agrees with 
me (smile), but because he worked at Davis California PVUSA and other places 
and saw a lot of innovative, but flawed PV. He knows first-hand that dozens 
of PV companies and/or products have come and gone in the search for the 
$0.10/kWh holy grail.

I wish the Chinese well, but am concerned about the wisdom of buying Chinese 
modules. On the one hand, I welcome China into the league of nations and 
support their progress toward democracy. Hopefully, Chinese national and 
local dictators will grow up and become civilized. On the other hand, latest 
reports from China, according to Hapoalim Securities analyst Gordon Johnson, 
is that Chinese solar module factory workers are willing to work for 
little-to-no-pay. There's a big difference between "volunteering" in the war 
of economic imperialism against the West and the volunteer work Wrenches 
perform in their communities and around the world.

But back to nuts-and-volts. Last year China became the largest producer of 
crystalline silicon solar cells. Although some companies admit that their 
modules are made in China, few companies with factories outside of China say 
they build their modules with cells outsourced from China. This is not all 
bad news because crystalline silicon cells are some of the most stable 
products ever made. However, you do have to protect yourself and your 
customers' investments, especially if you are a California contractor 
required to give 10-year system warranties. I recommend getting each 
module's IV curve, keeping the IV curves in your customer file, performing 
pre-installation tests (at least Voc and Isc), and performing annual systems 
inspections and tests. Look for cell-tab corrosion, front and backsheet 
delamination, and discoloration. Most customers will pay to see you once a 
year if your manner is professional and your service charge is reasonable.

Joel Davidson


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Bill Brooks" <billbrooks7 at yahoo.com>
To: "'RE-wrenches'" <re-wrenches at lists.re-wrenches.org>
Sent: Saturday, June 06, 2009 10:19 PM
Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] Chinese solar cells and modules and pricing


> All,
>
> How many of these Chinese manufacturers will still be in existence in 5
> years (probably less than half)? Are you really willing to risk a company
> and reputation for a few pennies per watt? Certainly several of the big
> companies are likely to survive, but you are playing a new game of 
> "Chinese
> roulette" with many of these companies.
>
> These are manufacturing companies, not stable companies with a long past 
> and
> future. The value proposition is so dramatically different from a major
> company to one of these Chinese manufacturing companies to make the
> comparison nearly idiotic. Most of the installers using these products 
> have
> way more guts than I have. Many will find their guts on the ground as the
> get disemboweled by bad choices. Don't you love the imagery.
>
> Yingli's one of the big companies now, they might survive. I'm sure they 
> are
> learning every month that they proceed how to better manufacture modules.
> They have been a player for two years--no major problems--YET. How does a
> year in the field show that a company is doing everything correctly? Oh, 
> and
> their fuse size is 10 amps on an 8 amp Isc module. They obviously are not
> all that sophisticated.
>
> Folks, you need to let the dumb contractors screw up and buy the cheap
> stuff. Now, more than ever, you have to sell on brand. The more the young
> Chinese stuff gets in the field and craps out, the worse our industry is
> going to take it on the chin in the public eye. It's just not worth the
> price difference. As Joel points out, let the multi-MW projects make the
> stupid mistakes--that will just scare away the capital investment--oh wait 
> a
> minute--we really need that.
>
> Bill.