SPAM-LOW: Pics of PV in Germany [RE-wrenches]

Sun Mar 13 21:19:34 PST 2005

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Hello Warren,

I guess until Michael gets you fixed up with RE-Markets the dialogue 
continues in both groups.

1. Unemployment in eastern Germany is very high, but western Germany is as 
busy as ever and unemployment is low.

2. I saw a lot of PV in Germany last July but not one poorly sited array. 
Nor did I did not hear a single complaint. Almost every German likes the 
greening of Germany. Some of the hard-core environmentalists feel threatened 
by the conservatives in government but they also feel that PV will continue 
to win majority support.

3. Solar grade silicon prices have not peaked. Most big silicon consumers 
like Sharp and Intel get what they need, but there's no new capacity for 
smaller PV companies trying to grow. Indian PV companies have a hard time 
finding silicon to continue to grow. Pot scrap and ingot heads and tails are 
no longer readily available.

4. There will be more PV modules available but no glut. Manufacturers are 
doing a better job allocating output to maintain market share and 
distribution channels. As always, money talks. Deep-pocket, repeat purchase 
channels will get all the modules they can afford.

5. What PV plastics and aluminum have dropped in price? In addition, China 
is buying a lot steel and cooper. Silicon and PV are also on their shopping 
list.

In line with what you wrote earlier about avoiding in-fighting, Homepower 
#106, page 10 editorial repeats the Solarbuzz analysis that "The U.S. solar 
market appears defined by partisan rather than bipartisan characteristics." 
Most Californians support pro-solar Swartzenhegger's plan for PV on new 
homes, but some CalSEIA members oppose it for fear that housing developers 
will get all the rebate money and be cut out of the action. I think that the 
rising tide in PV will lift everyone's boat.

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Warren Lauzon" <windsun at wind-sun.com>
To: <RE-wrenches at topica.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 6:56 PM
Subject: Re: SPAM-LOW: Pics of PV in Germany [RE-wrenches]

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I tend to agree. In fact we are already seeing some slight backing off of
prices for a few models of panels in quantity. And there are some "issues"
with the recent German PV boom:

1. In large part the big subsidies were pushed through not on the basis of
energy, but in creating new jobs in Germany, which has an unemployement rate
of about 3 times the US. According to one German online newspaper, the
projected vs actual new jobs created has a large discrepancy. And the
program is getting to be very expensive. So while I don't see Germany
stopping it, I think there will soon be much tighter rules and regulations.
Apparently the situation now is very much like the USA several years back
when there were some very large tax rebates for solar energy. Thousands
jumped on the bandwagon, but once that was gone the survival rate of
companies was about 5%. One writer compared it to the Y2K panic bubble.
Quote from Forbes: "Germany's Federal Labor Agency announced a 177,000 rise
in the number of registered unemployed in February, to a total of 5.2
million. The aggregate rate of unemployment rose to 12.6% in February from
12.1% only a month earlier"
http://www.forbes.com/business/2005/03/08/cz_0308oxan_germany.html

2. A few news articles I have seen in German new sources/feeds online
suggest that the love affair might be slowing down a lot - there has been
some criticism lately for a lot of outright fraud (people getting huge
rebates, then selling the panels so the next guy can get the same rebate).
The target for energy saved vs money spent is also apparently far under
original projections - due in part to installations in far less than ideal
locations (noted example, 44 panels in a courtyard that gets less than 90
minutes sun a day).

3. Purified Silicon, while still in somewhat short supply, seems to have
peaked in price, and there are supposed to be some brand new startups to
make it just for the solar cell industry coming on line soon. At least a
couple of those companies claim to have much more efficient processes for
making solar cell grade Silicon.
4. Manufacturers have ramped up production a lot in the past year, and much
of that has been going to Germany to cash in on the high prices. About 2
months ago we totally stopped getting any inquiries to buy panels from us to
send to Germany, which indicates to me that a possible glut is not far
behind.
5. Aluminum for the frames, glass for the covers, and plastics are all part
of the expense also. Lately, all but plastics have dropped slightly in
price. Quote:" Demand is seriously weakening. Global aluminum demand
continues to lose dynamism across the globe. In fact, Japan, Germany and
Italy are technically in recession,...". Market analysts predict a 25% price
drop by summer for Aluminum.

Now, all that said, some things could offset it, such as the new initiative
in China for more renewables, and the increased demand in Africa and Spain.

All in all, should be an interesting year ahead.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northern Arizona Wind & Sun, Inc.
Free Solar Discussion Forum: www.wind-sun.com/forum/index.php
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----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Jim Duncan" <ntrei at earthlink.net>
To: <RE-wrenches at topica.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 7:21 PM
Subject: RE: SPAM-LOW: Pics of PV in Germany [RE-wrenches]

Keith Cronin wrote:

I have a feeling that we won't see the module deficit lasting much
longer. Solarbuzz.com lists the number of PV module mfgrs worldwide at
33. Germany has 14 of them.
So it's to their advantage to kick up their domestic production to
full-tilt and save a bundle of Euros. Save the shipping and handling not
to mention the premium prices they pay to the rest of the planets module
makers. Their domestic prices drop and so do the prices for everyone
else's modules.
Why? because other mfgrs gradually find themselves with excess capacity
and slumping sales. In order to keep their profits propped up, they have
to lower prices or add incentives. The only other huge potential market
in the US. And we're big, potentially. But only if the $/Wp slides a bit
lower. By then the silicon 'shortage' should be disappearing too.
But prices will only go lower if: (1) another 'Germany' doesn't come
along and start hogging all the product and (2) there isn't really a
conspiracy.
By the way, those Germans use a LOT of tile roofs. How do they attach
their racks?

Jim Duncan
North Texas Renewable Energy Inc
Fort Worth, Texas

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