SPAM-LOW: Pics of PV in Germany [RE-wrenches]

[Warren Lauzon]

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I tend to agree. In fact we are already seeing some slight backing off of 
prices for a few models of panels in quantity. And there are some "issues" 
with the recent German PV boom:

1. In large part the big subsidies were pushed through not on the basis of 
energy, but in creating new jobs in Germany, which has an unemployement rate 
of about 3 times the US. According to one German online newspaper, the 
projected vs actual new jobs created has a large discrepancy. And the 
program is getting to be very expensive. So while I don't see Germany 
stopping it, I think there will soon be much tighter rules and regulations. 
Apparently the situation now is very much like the USA several years back 
when there were some very large tax rebates for solar energy. Thousands 
jumped on the bandwagon, but once that was gone the survival rate of 
companies was about 5%. One writer compared it to the Y2K panic bubble. 
Quote from Forbes: "Germany's Federal Labor Agency announced a 177,000 rise 
in the number of registered unemployed in February, to a total of 5.2 
million. The aggregate rate of unemployment rose to 12.6% in February from 
12.1% only a month earlier" 
http://www.forbes.com/business/2005/03/08/cz_0308oxan_germany.html


2. A few news articles I have seen in German new sources/feeds online 
suggest that the love affair might be slowing down a lot - there has been 
some criticism lately for a lot of outright fraud (people getting huge 
rebates, then selling the panels so the next guy can get the same rebate). 
The target for energy saved vs money spent is also apparently far under 
original projections - due in part to installations in far less than ideal 
locations (noted example, 44 panels in a courtyard that gets less than 90 
minutes sun a day).

3. Purified Silicon, while still in somewhat short supply, seems to have 
peaked in price, and there are supposed to be some brand new startups to 
make it just for the solar cell industry coming on line soon. At least a 
couple of those companies claim to have much more efficient processes for 
making solar cell grade Silicon.
4. Manufacturers have ramped up production a lot in the past year, and much 
of that has been going to Germany to cash in on the high prices. About 2 
months ago we totally stopped getting any inquiries to buy panels from us to 
send to Germany, which indicates to me that a possible glut is not far 
behind.
5. Aluminum for the frames, glass for the covers, and plastics are all part 
of the expense also. Lately, all but plastics have dropped slightly in 
price. Quote:" Demand is seriously weakening. Global aluminum demand 
continues to lose dynamism across the globe. In fact, Japan, Germany and 
Italy are technically in recession,...". Market analysts predict a 25% price 
drop by summer for Aluminum.

Now, all that said, some things could offset it, such as the new initiative 
in China for more renewables, and the increased demand in Africa and Spain.

All in all, should be an interesting year ahead.

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----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Jim Duncan" <ntrei at earthlink.net>
To: <RE-wrenches at topica.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 13, 2005 7:21 PM
Subject: RE: SPAM-LOW: Pics of PV in Germany [RE-wrenches]


Keith Cronin wrote:

I have a feeling that we won't see the module deficit lasting much
longer. Solarbuzz.com lists the number of PV module mfgrs worldwide at
33. Germany has 14 of them.
So it's to their advantage to kick up their domestic production to
full-tilt and save a bundle of Euros. Save the shipping and handling not
to mention the premium prices they pay to the rest of the planets module
makers. Their domestic prices drop and so do the prices for everyone
else's modules.
Why? because other mfgrs gradually find themselves with excess capacity
and slumping sales. In order to keep their profits propped up, they have
to lower prices or add incentives. The only other huge potential market
in the US. And we're big, potentially. But only if the $/Wp slides a bit
lower. By then the silicon 'shortage' should be disappearing too.
But prices will only go lower if: (1) another 'Germany' doesn't come
along and start hogging all the product and (2) there isn't really a
conspiracy.
By the way, those Germans use a LOT of tile roofs. How do they attach
their racks?

Jim Duncan
North Texas Renewable Energy Inc
Fort Worth, Texas

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