Module shortage rumors [RE-wrenches]

[Graham Owen]

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Mo thanks for the info.  Rumor has it modules sell for 3.20 EU per Watt
in Germany and a 30% exchange rate bonus equates to roughly $4.20 per
Watt.

Graham




-----Original Message-----
From: Mo Rousso [mailto:mrousso at heliopower.com] 
Sent: Monday, May 10, 2004 9:31 PM
To: RE-wrenches at topica.com
Subject: Re: Module shortage rumors [RE-wrenches]


 

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Here are my ramblings:

The rumors are real.  My normal BP and Sharp supply line is now taking
orders for shipment in Aug/Sep timeframe.  Due to my long standing
relationship with BP and being one of their largest dealers, I can get
modules allocated every quarter, but probably not enough to satisfy sold
projects.  Any large project (200+ modules) can not get modules (at
reasonable prices) for at least 3 months.  BP has also raised their
pricing to us by 15-20%.  Sharp has so far held pricing and is adding
50% more capacity to their Memphis plant.  In calling around, most
stocking distributors (BP, Sharp, Sanyo, Shell, etc) are having
inventory sucked away in large quantities.  A number of distributors are
using this "opportunity" to further raise pricing and suspend credit
terms.  Cash up front or forget it!  Fortunately, I have a long memory
and will carefully choose who I will continue to do business with based
on my experiences to date.  I have to say, Alternative Solar (a BP
distributor) has and is strongly supporting my business.  This is a
cyclical business and we will have our day in the sun again.

The main culprit is Germany.  The PV manufacturers can get at least a
30% premium for product there.  Plus the Euro/$ exchange rate is hurting
us right now.  There are German importers working the phones and calling
dealers to get as much product as they can.  That's right, product
slated for the U.S. Market is being surreptitiously acquired and sold to
the Euros, further exacerbating the domestic shortage.  Even
"undesirable" (due to size constraints and labor costs) a-Si (such as
Kaneka) is not available domestically in large modules.  Hot on the
heels of Germany are Spain and Italy.  Also I hear South America may be
heating up.

I had dinner with BP brass last week.  They anticipate an acute shortage
over the next 3 months and then some easing.  They feel that pricing
will also become more competitive by 4th quarter this year.

Sharp is not impacted by the Euros because they do not have the
appropriate listings for the EU version of UL.  Nevertheless, Sharp
modules are also being diverted to the Old World.

Advice from BP, for the next 3 months, buy whatever you can get.
-- 
Mo Rousso
President
HelioPower, Inc
760.451.9374
www.heliopower.com

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