Module shortage rumors [RE-wrenches]

[Mo Rousso]

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Here are my ramblings:

The rumors are real.  My normal BP and Sharp supply line is now taking
orders for shipment in Aug/Sep timeframe.  Due to my long standing
relationship with BP and being one of their largest dealers, I can get
modules allocated every quarter, but probably not enough to satisfy sold
projects.  Any large project (200+ modules) can not get modules (at
reasonable prices) for at least 3 months.  BP has also raised their pricing
to us by 15-20%.  Sharp has so far held pricing and is adding 50% more
capacity to their Memphis plant.  In calling around, most stocking
distributors (BP, Sharp, Sanyo, Shell, etc) are having inventory sucked away
in large quantities.  A number of distributors are using this "opportunity"
to further raise pricing and suspend credit terms.  Cash up front or forget
it!  Fortunately, I have a long memory and will carefully choose who I will
continue to do business with based on my experiences to date.  I have to
say, Alternative Solar (a BP distributor) has and is strongly supporting my
business.  This is a cyclical business and we will have our day in the sun
again.

The main culprit is Germany.  The PV manufacturers can get at least a 30%
premium for product there.  Plus the Euro/$ exchange rate is hurting us
right now.  There are German importers working the phones and calling
dealers to get as much product as they can.  That's right, product slated
for the U.S. Market is being surreptitiously acquired and sold to the Euros,
further exacerbating the domestic shortage.  Even "undesirable" (due to size
constraints and labor costs) a-Si (such as Kaneka) is not available
domestically in large modules.  Hot on the heels of Germany are Spain and
Italy.  Also I hear South America may be heating up.

I had dinner with BP brass last week.  They anticipate an acute shortage
over the next 3 months and then some easing.  They feel that pricing will
also become more competitive by 4th quarter this year.

Sharp is not impacted by the Euros because they do not have the appropriate
listings for the EU version of UL.  Nevertheless, Sharp modules are also
being diverted to the Old World.

Advice from BP, for the next 3 months, buy whatever you can get.
-- 
Mo Rousso
President
HelioPower, Inc
760.451.9374
www.heliopower.com

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