Revisionist History and the poignant SDHW historic parable [RE-wrenches]

Bill Brooks billb at endecon.com
Thu Dec 26 12:24:11 PST 2002


Joel and Jeff,

I think you both may have a somewhat revisionist view of history. The demise
of the SDHW was caused by many factors. First, the rebates became too large
(not unlike the $4.50/Watt numbers in California). Second, the limits on the
funds were far too loose providing for all sorts of fly-by-nights, bad
system designs, systems that never worked (not unlike today--however, the
CEC program requires inspection certificates and UL-listed components--two
requirements directly linked to the problems with the SDHW industry). Third,
the fluctuations and final abrupt loss of federal tax credits. The bad news
also fed the political intentions of those who wanted the credits to go
away.

With all the bad experiences the public had with those bad systems and bad
people, the industry could not survive the abrupt loss of tax credits.
These are not independent variables. Certainly, if we lost the rebates
today, we would lose the market in California because of that loss. However,
the PV industry is still struggling with many of the public perceptions
about solar energy that were formed in the 80's. The PV industry is also
starting to reinforce those bad memories and that is tragic. I have been
labelled a prophet of doom in the midst of the PV boom in California. This
is a very unpopular and often painful position to take, but the message has
to be sent out. It doesn't require a supernatural gift to see that things
need to change to promote a healthy and sustained industry for PV. There are
aspects of the existing program that need somewhat painful, but healthy
change.

My view is that you look at companies that doing things properly and
representing the industry well and observe how they do things. Take the
essential elements of a quality approach put limits in place that reward
those companies for doing the right thing and force those companies that cut
corners for the fast buck to come up to an appropriate level of
professionalism or leave the industry. Since we have a very real limit on
the available funds in California (and anywhere there are rebate programs
for that matter), it would serve all of us to work to improve the quality of
systems overall in the program. Education is a key element of that and since
I spend much of my time doing just that, I clearly see it as valuable.
However, not giving incentives to folks that are not willing do things the
right way is a way of freeing that money up of those companies that will do
things properly.

We are such a numbers oriented society that everyone becomes euphoric when
the numbers are good and forgetting that quality is more important than
quantity.

Bill.

-----Original Message-----
From: Joel Davidson [mailto:joeldavidson at earthlink.net]
Sent: Sunday, December 22, 2002 9:26 AM
To: RE-wrenches at topica.com
Subject: Re: NABCEP [RE-wrenches]


Jeff,

Right on. A bad day PVing is better than the best day fossil fueling.

It wasn't bad solar water heaters or inflated prices that killed the 40%
federal
tax credit (circa 1978 to 1985). It was the Republicans with actor Ronald
Regan
as their front man. It took them 5 years to do kill the credit, but they are
persistent little buggers. So keep your bug spray handy for 2003.

Happy holidays
***snip***

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