PV as an investment [RE-wrenches]

Jeffrey Wolfe, Global Resources global at sover.net
Mon Sep 10 13:36:44 PDT 2001


Joel,

Do you really think that you'll get 1825 kWh/yr per kW installed? Seems 
pretty high, but you are in solar paradise. Up here, depending upon who's 
number you want to believe, we use numbers of 1000 to 1100 kWh/yr per 
installed kW. (lower number for battery systems)

Other than that, the analysis looks good, but it's not an easy sell. People 
who look at investments that way tend to want to really understand the 
commodities. They would probably include a new inverter at some point in 
the 20 yr panel life. They would probably not look at the investment as 
being any where near as safe as a CD. The investment has no liquidity. 
Overall, tough selling method I'd say.

Jeff

On Monday, September 10, 2001 3:33 PM, Joel Davidson 
[SMTP:joeldavidson at earthlink.net] wrote:
> Selling stuff, even good stuff, is not my idea of living the good life. I 
challenge
> people to reduce their energy consumption by at least 50% without buying 
more stuff.
> If everyone in the U.S. cuts their consumption at least 10%, I'll quit 
selling PV and
> start enjoying heaven on earth. The bad news is, Americans are not going 
to consume
> less and billions of people in developing countries aspire to consume 
like Americans.
> So I guess I'll just have to keep selling PV until everyone becomes a net 
energy
> producer or all of the planetary resources are used up.
>
> Back to PV as an investment. There has been a lot of good discussion 
about selling PV
> and answering objections about payback and break-even. But no one has 
commented about
> the math I used to come up with the return on investment. Are my numbers 
right?
>
> 1kW AC PV system
> 5 sun hours per day
> 1,825 kWh/year PV production
> $0.12/kWh utility rate
> $219 value of PV
> $10,000 PV system cost before rebate
> $5,500 PV system cost after California $4.50/W rebate
> 3.9% return on PV system as an investment ($216/0.039 = $5500)
> 35% income tax rate
> 3.9% is equal to a 5.2% untaxed return on investment
>
> If interest rates and stock returns were not so low and there were no PV 
rebates, I
> wouldn't even bother with this problem, but 5.2% is better than CDs and 
most stocks
> lately.
>
>
>
> jay peltz wrote:
>
> > Hi All,
> >
> > Heres my question.  Sure I give the customer many angles to make the 
system cost
> > effective, but how many people run into problems when you suggest:
> >
> > "Well its cheaper to reduce than produce.  We need to get you a new 
refer, washer,
> > lights etc etc.  "
> >
> > Then I show them the math, and its like major blank time.
> >
> > Just wondering what you all have run into.
> >
> > jay
> >
> > peltz power
> >
> > Smitty wrote:
> >
> > > Howdy all. Reading all these wonderful posts about the payback wall 
people
> > > have built around themselves before contacting us, something occurred 
to me,
> > > and that is this. I don't know how old all of you are, but I suspect 
most of
> > > us are middle aged. After WW II, a lot of lads came home to a booming 
economy,
> > > and badda bing, badda boom, the baby boom was on. Young couples in 
the
> > > strongest economy on earth, out achieving the American dream for 
decades. He
> > > is where we come in. A generation watching our parents getting 
houses, new and
> > > better appliances of all kinds, cars with fins, and the marketing 
boob tube
> > > teaching us new, bigger and better.
> > >
> > > Many of the customers we deal with nationwide are of this generation. 
Our
> > > company roots are in solar thermal, but we to, still hear the "P" 
word and one
> > > of my other dreaded words, "efficiency".
> > >
> > > Since some of these baby boomers are now yuppies, I find they look at 
things
> > > they don't understand as an investment, as opposed to a Ford 
Expedition. ME
> > > WANT. I'll spare you the whole spiel, but it is quite simple to 
explain the
> > > economics of solar thermal vs a furnace or water heater in terms of 
an
> > > investment. About this time the Mrs. pops up, "It will make our house 
look
> > > ugly.". And so it goes. Sometimes the wall comes down (sometimes on 
my head).
> > >
> > > One last point. I find it is much easier to sell solar to our BB 
brethren,
> > > after they have already made a luxury purchase, i.e. a remote hunting 
cabin,
> > > RV or a cold swimming pool.
> > >
> > > Smitty
> > >
> > > "Bill Loesch, Saint Louis Solar" wrote:
> > >
> > > > My compliments Jeff for the creative thinking. Anyone else have an
> > > > effective reply to utility comparisons?
> > > >
> > > > Bill Loesch
> > > >
> > > > RE-wrenches said:
> > > > >When asked either "what's the  payback", or "how does this compare 
to the
> > > > utility co.", I simply
> > > > >said  "It's the cheapest clean power you can buy."
> > > >
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