[RE-wrenches] Volcanos and reduced solar production
SOLARPRO at aol.com
SOLARPRO at aol.com
Sun Apr 25 12:13:49 PDT 2010
Joel:
I have noticed that the energy predicted by the CSI calculator is
consistently lower than the first year output of our systems, usually by at least
10% to 20%. This is also true of the PVWatts version we use.
At first we thought that we had done such a great job! But I believe that
the accumulative conservative default values in both calculators and the
expectation for module degradation built in to the source code is the real
answer. If our customers ever have an issue with understanding lower
production, it is usually because they fail to recognize that daily or monthly
production values relate to annual production expectations on a non-linear
basis. Recently El Nino has dramatically affected generation and as well,
our own production schedule.
Kicked out butts, in fact.
Pat Redgate
Ameco Solar
In a message dated 4/25/2010 9:43:09 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time,
joel.davidson at sbcglobal.net writes:
Wrenches,
With the Iceland volcano in the news and winter over, I thought it would
be
a good time ask wrenches convince their customers that their reduced solar
production was caused by atmospheric conditions and not their PV system.
I'm
not talking about short-term conditions like a few cloudy days. I mean
when
you install a PV system in October and have to explain in gloomy February
why their PV system is not performing like you predicted.
Missing the mark can be bad for business. For example, reduced insolation
caused by the El Chichon Mexico volcano was reportedly one of the reasons
that the Luz solar power plants went bankrupt in the 1980s. See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Energy_Generating_Systems and
http://www.unige.ch/cuepe/html/biblio/pdf/michalsky-ineichen%201993%20-%20mo
unt%20pinatubo%20and%20solar%20power%20plants%20(solar%20today).pdf
Joel Davidson
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