[RE-wrenches] sales to-date

[Joel Davidson]

Hello Marco,

This is an interesting (I think RE-Markets) dialogue.

I'm sorry to hear about Hawaiian utility obstructionism. The electric 
utility on the island nation of Barbados just decided to do a renewables 
feed-in tariff. I hope the Hawaiian government steps in to remind utilities 
what they have known for many years: that distributed PV provides grid 
voltage support and offsets fossil fuel generation.

It is hard to tell how much U.S. and global PV sales are down because of the 
recession, unemployment, finance industry meltdown, and consumer fear. It is 
also hard to tell how much PV sales are up because a lot of multi-megawatt 
project announcements have not announced start or completion dates. However, 
most prognosticators think 2009 global PV sales will be down but U.S. sales 
will be up.

On the one hand, the California Solar Incentive (CSI) administrators are 
bragging. See
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/NR/rdonlyres/84D12BA8-CCA0-4713-B145-F7B8EE4A9481/0/AprilCSIStaffProgressReportwithDataAnnex.pdf?utm_campaign=California%20Solar%20Initiative%20Newsletter%20-%20April%202009&utm_content=bob.aldrich@comcast.net&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=VerticalResponse&utm_term=April%202009%20CSI%20Staff%20Progress%20Report

On the other hand, Suncentric's report shows the CSI is not on track to hit 
its 3,000 MW goal of subsidized PV by the end of 2016 and needs to be 
changed. See
http://www.suncentricinc.com/downloads/SunCentric-Business-Perspectives-CSI-Report-April-9-Final.pdf

The silicon shortage and European PV boom drove solar module prices up 
temporarily, but prices are back to where they were tracking (5% reduction 
for every doubling of production). First Solar low-cost announcements and 
global module inventories are creating further downward price pressure which 
is both good and bad. Good because PV system prices are affordable to more 
people (if they have a job and money to buy stuff). Bad because politicians 
are again saying that solar energy does not need subsidies (but coal, oil, 
gas, and nuclear energy still do).

In Southern California, PV and solar thermal contractors are busy but are 
feeling market crowding and margin squeeze as a new wave of people (who lost 
their jobs) get into the solar business. Big PV is getting bigger as the big 
U.S. solar contractors get bigger and go global and European and Asian PV 
manufacturers and contractors compete for U.S. installation contracts. 
SolarCity is selling (not just leasing) PV systems with First Solar modules 
faster than they can install them. Indications are the ride is going to get 
even bumpier when the federal stimulus money starts trickling down (up or 
sideways depending on one's political persuasion). Hang on. The best is yet 
to come.

Joel Davidson

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Marco Mangelsdorf" <marco at pvthawaii.com>
To: "'RE-wrenches'" <re-wrenches at lists.re-wrenches.org>
Sent: Sunday, May 31, 2009 9:52 AM
Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] sales to-date


> Travis,
>
> Given the high cost for electricity here in Hawaii and both the federal
> and
> state tax credits available here, we've had a pretty solid 2009 so far and
> been at about the same revenue level as last year.  We're a very small
> market out here compared to other states.  And we're starting to see more
> areas of the grid where the utilities are saying that they have reached
> their comfort level as far as installed PV kWs, which means that no
> additional PV systems may be installed in those areas without expensive
> (e.g., in the $30K range) interconnect studies being performed.
>
> marco
>
>
> Uhhhh...Marco....we're you going to share your numbers :)?
>
> A few months ago our gross sales were down nearly 70% compared to the same
> period the year before.  But 2008 1st & 2nd quarters we're some of the
> best
> we'd ever had the last 15 years.
>
> We've since landed some good sized jobs (for us anyway) and are now down
> less then 30%.  We might catch up by the end of the year but I'm certainly
> not in a panic if we don't.  I'm enjoying the lighter work load plus net
> profit is noticeable higher which I suppose is all that matters.
>
> Best,
> Travis Creswell
> Ozark Energy Services
>
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