Thin Film promises, promises, promises [RE-wrenches]

[Joel Davidson]

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They're back is an understatement. See 
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FSLR&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The laminates weigh over 4 pounds per square foot. Have any wrenches 
installed First Solar modules?

----- Original Message ----- 
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2008 6:04 PM
Subject: Thin Film promises, promises, promises [RE-wrenches]


>
> Having had some dealings myself with First Solar back in 2002, I thought 
> I'd
> chime in with my two Euros.  Back in 2002, with talk of an imminent 100 MW
> production line coming on-line and $2/watt pricing to its first 
> purchasers,
> First Solar had many well-meaning journalists singing the similar songs of
> hype and vaporware that we're hearing now from the creative Nanosolar
> marketing folks and their fans.  For whatever legitimate reasons, First
> Solar and CdTe did not materialize as touted in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 
> 2006
> or 2007.  And now they're baaaaaaaaack.....Perhaps now in 2008, we will
> begin to see a substantial shift from crystalline Si to the thin films.
> Perhaps not.  I for one have been in this business long enough to have
> gotten excited the first, second, third and maybe even fourth time when I
> heard about this or that breakthrough in thin film efficiency or cost. 
> Not
> any more.
>
> Marco
> ProVision
>
> Bill,
>
> I am not "so confident" that specifically Nanosolar will succeed, but I
> respect Bernhard Beck's work. I am very confident that CIS, CIGS, a-Si and
> other thin films will succeed. I've been following First Solar since 1990
> when they were called Solar Cells, Inc. and got my first First Solar
> laminate in 2000. They did not look so good in 2001. See
> http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200110922027 but they
> hung in there.
>
> Crystalline Si PV still sets the bar. Although First Solar's installed kW
> price is the lowest in the world, their kWh cost structure is above
> crystalline Si electricity. "This apparent contraction between low cost 
> per
> watt and high cost per kWh arises because of two factors: lower module
> efficiencies relative to crystalline silicon (comparatively higher
> installation costs), and higher interest rates (greater perceived risk by
> project financers and customers)" from Photon article.
>
> Joel Davidson


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