Thin Film promises, promises, promises [RE-wrenches]

[Marco Mangelsdorf]

Having had some dealings myself with First Solar back in 2002, I thought I'd
chime in with my two Euros.  Back in 2002, with talk of an imminent 100 MW
production line coming on-line and $2/watt pricing to its first purchasers,
First Solar had many well-meaning journalists singing the similar songs of
hype and vaporware that we're hearing now from the creative Nanosolar
marketing folks and their fans.  For whatever legitimate reasons, First
Solar and CdTe did not materialize as touted in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006
or 2007.  And now they're baaaaaaaaack.....Perhaps now in 2008, we will
begin to see a substantial shift from crystalline Si to the thin films.
Perhaps not.  I for one have been in this business long enough to have
gotten excited the first, second, third and maybe even fourth time when I
heard about this or that breakthrough in thin film efficiency or cost.  Not
any more.

Marco
ProVision

Bill,

I am not "so confident" that specifically Nanosolar will succeed, but I
respect Bernhard Beck's work. I am very confident that CIS, CIGS, a-Si and
other thin films will succeed. I've been following First Solar since 1990
when they were called Solar Cells, Inc. and got my first First Solar
laminate in 2000. They did not look so good in 2001. See
http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200110922027 but they
hung in there.

Crystalline Si PV still sets the bar. Although First Solar's installed kW
price is the lowest in the world, their kWh cost structure is above
crystalline Si electricity. "This apparent contraction between low cost per
watt and high cost per kWh arises because of two factors: lower module
efficiencies relative to crystalline silicon (comparatively higher
installation costs), and higher interest rates (greater perceived risk by
project financers and customers)" from Photon article.

Joel Davidson

----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Brooks" <bill at brooksolar.com>
To: <RE-wrenches at topica.com>
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2008 2:07 PM
Subject: RE: Nanosolar [RE-wrenches]


>
> Joel,
>
> What makes you so confident that Nanosolar will deliver since they have 
> not
> delivered on any of their big claims to date? I'm looking at a partially
> populated small structure with an unnamed amount of PV. I want thin films 
> to
> succeed, and it looks like First Solar may just be on their way, but I
> remain skeptical about Nanosolar until they show real production and
> performance. First Solar was not a huge leap of faith since it was first
> fielded way back in 1994. Nanosolar has yet to field any significant
> product.
>
> Bill.


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