Module dreams (was module shortage rumors) [RE-wrenches]

[Joel Davidson]

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Jeff,
Thank you for your detailed reply. Your numbers make sense. Does anyone
disagree or have a different set of numbers?
Joel Davidson

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Jeffery Wolfe, Global Resource Options"
<jeff at globalresourceoptions.com>
To: <RE-wrenches at topica.com>
Sent: Friday, May 14, 2004 6:12 AM
Subject: RE: Module dreams (was module shortage rumors) [RE-wrenches]

Joel,

Not for a long time. PV at $1.50/watt in maybe 5 years if efficiency
goes to 25% (from ~16% now). (Glass costs $xx/SF. Aluminum frame costs
$XX per module, etc.) As oil and energy prices go up, so do module
production costs. (Amory Lovins said we only had the energy to convert
to solar if we started 15 years ago.)

Inverter at $0.40/watt (not today, but maybe in 5 years)

Racking at $0.30/watt today, maybe $0.25 soon?

Install at $1/watt, when we are all doing installs close to home.

Profit on materials? Electricians get 30%, so that's 0.3 x (1.50 + 0.40
+ 0.25) = $0.64

Total materials with profit = $2.79
Installation = $1.00

Total installed cost = $3.79

Of course, there is no marketing expense here, which chews up a huge
chunk of cash right now. We're assuming here that we just get a call and
go out and install a system, and that the crew is busy 5 days a week,
and all I do is manage the flow. We're also assuming that this is a
simple install, and that the utilities do not ram more rules and hurdles
in our face.

I can see installs for $5.50 within 5 years. I can't get to $4 within
anything I call reality.

But then, if we did that, we'd be cheaper than the out of pocket cost of
oil and electricity (and way below the real cost.) I'm firmly convinced
that as soon as we get close to that level, "things will happen" that
either make traditional fuels cheaper, or make PV more expensive. (Oops,
no more net metering...)

Jeff Wolfe

-----Original Message-----
From: Joel Davidson [mailto:joeldavidson at earthlink.net]
Sent: Thursday, May 13, 2004 11:03 AM
To: RE-wrenches at topica.com
Subject: Module dreams (was module shortage rumors) [RE-wrenches]

Thanks for confirming that customer demand and PV manufacturing are up
but lower cell and module prices major manufacturers are not happening
exactly as promised. Economies of scale were supposed to kick in at 10
or 20 MW/year production. With the PV industry is approaching
1,000MW/year and three companies sell over 50MW/year, when do you think
you will be able to sell PV modules at $1.50/W STC and install PV
systems at $3/W STC without subsidies?

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