Proposed Changes to C.E.C. rebates in California [RE-wrenches]

Bill Brooks billbrooks7 at earthlink.net
Thu May 10 13:49:41 PDT 2001


Michael,

If Dave is referring to meeting all of California's energy needs, he may be
right, but reasonable estimates say that we can divert 20-40MW of PV to the
California market over the next year or so. All the existing Buydown money
can support is about 22 MW of PV installations. We are likely to see a rise
in the cost of PV to California in order to divert shipments already
scheduled for Germany and Japan. Price talks--manufacturers will divert
their product to the highest bidder. Something called supply and demand.

By the way, we should never refer to "at current production rates." That
statement does not make sense. We are seeing production levels increase at
an average of 25% a year right now so we should assume that production is on
a rise with no obvious end in site. Last year was a 40% increase.

Bill.


> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Welch, Home Power [mailto:michael.welch at homepower.com]
> Sent: Thursday, May 10, 2001 1:12 PM
> To: RE-wrenches at topica.com
> Subject: Re: Proposed Changes to C.E.C. rebates in California
> [RE-wrenches]
>
>
> Travis Creswell, Ozark Solar wrote at 12:35 PM 05/10/2001 -0500:
>
> >Bill's suggestion of going to CA is not to bad although.  I'm booked up
> >through June.  Anybody need help in July?  "Have tools, will travel".
>
> The next thing that is going to happen is that we are going to
> run out of PV modules. Some folks in CA will be paying over 20
> cents per KWH for grid power, and with the new rebates (if), it
> comes very close to making economic sense to install PV or wind.
>
> Who is going to build all these new "CA Buy Down Program"
> approved modules? Manufacturers are already reporting significant
> delays in shipping due to demand. I imagine that module prices
> have already increased somewhat as a result.
>
> Think about what will happen to national & international module
> prices once the CA program gets into full swing. I seriously
> doubt if manufacturers could keep up with CA demand for household
> PV alone, let alone everything else. I heard David Katz remark
> that at current production rates, it would take 50 years of
> manufacturing using every international PV manufacturing facility
> to meet CA's needs via PV.
>
> Michael Welch
>
> ------------------------
> "Society is like a stew. If you don't keep it stirred up, you get
> a lot of scum on top."
> 			Edward Abbey
>
> Michael Welch, michael.welch at homepower.com www.homepower.com
>      Managing Editor, Home Power magazine
>      Office Coordinator, Redwood Alliance
>      (Not HP mag numbers) 707-822-7884 fax: 707-822-3481
>
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