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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor=white lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>Vertically integrated companies like Yingli et-al have the advantage of not having to buy their cells from a third party silicon wafer manufacturer or, god forbid, on the global spot market. This guarantees that at least they can maintain and verify their quality. The wafer industry is where the death spiral began.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>China bragged back as early as 2006 that their goal was building 10 Si ingot refineries solely for export, not their domestic PV market. I recall recently reading that only six of them were ever built. It could have been a lot worse. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>But as early as 2008-9 German modules were appearing with inferior PV grade Si, stepped-on with metallurgical grade Si. Lawsuits were flying. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>Any time there is a limited market and “unlimited” money there will be cutthroat competition. I watched it happen in Austin where one installer after another was low-balled to death only to be replaced with two more. In the early days California to a large degree was the same. Your good fortune there was that there was political support and regulation in the background. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>I’ve watched up close the parallel universe of natural gas drilling/fracking that began ten years ago in the Barnett Shale right in my back yard. There are hundreds of gas drillers, the slur is they’re cowboys, all independent and determined to produce as much gas and profit as possible before the shakeout begins. That’s why gas is so cheap, too many players. But when they begin the consolidation in gas industry, a cartel will begin to emerge. And you can bet we won’t like it. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>Don’t believe for a minute that because the PV industry started out independent, sustainable and with good green intentions that the investors give a shit. It’s the old adage, get big or get out. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>As for me, at 62 and with 20 years of PV experience under my belt, I’m about to retire, double the size of my produce production acreage and work my tail off from home. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'>I’ll be staying in touch.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>Jim Duncan<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>North Texas Renewable Energy Inc<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'><a href="http://www.ntrei.com/">www.ntrei.com</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>NABCEP PV 031310-57<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>TECL-27398<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'><a href="mailto:ntrei@1scom.net">ntrei@1scom.net</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D'>817.917.0527<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><img border=0 width=178 height=228 id="Picture_x0020_1" src="cid:image003.jpg@01CE5C65.A193E6C0" alt="NABCEP PV 2"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext'> re-wrenches-bounces@lists.re-wrenches.org [mailto:re-wrenches-bounces@lists.re-wrenches.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Allan Sindelar<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, May 29, 2013 10:56 AM<br><b>To:</b> RE-wrenches<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [RE-wrenches] Defective modules-Chinese crap?<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>On more than one occasion in the last year or so I have told a potential customer that with the possible exception of Sunpower, and perhaps (vertically-integrated and long-established) Kyocera, I'm not confident that any manufacturer will be still around in 25 years to honor the 25-year warranty that all manufacturers routinely offer. This is also one of my points when I do public presentations (my focus is always on off grid/battery-based applications). It's partly a cautionary note about going for the cheapest price, and the effects of the unsustainable drop in module prices on the global PV industry. <br><br>It's not just Chinese modules, either. We had BP replace entire arrays of 160s under warranty when 25% showed the familiar hot-spot failure. <br><br>There is essentially no way to know what's inside of a PV module. The NYTimes article is right on: the emperor has no clothes. Better to tell the world about the naked emperor sooner than later, so that just possibly the shift can begin, from cheapest overall cost-per-watt to something akin to a system that will last. But I'm not holding my breath: as long as commercial systems are based on short-term third-party financial gain - accelerated depreciation and the 30% federal tax credit - there's no incentive for systems to be built to last, or to cost more than whatever is cheapest up front. <br><br>Have you reviewed the list of deceased solar companies? <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Rest-in-Peace-The-List-of-Deceased-Solar-Companies">https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Rest-in-Peace-The-List-of-Deceased-Solar-Companies</a><br><br>This could turn into quite a rant, so <Rant: OFF>. We all just need to be careful what we ask for, because we might get it.<br></span><br><br>Allan<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><b>Allan Sindelar</b><br><span style='font-size:10.0pt'><a href="mailto:Allan@positiveenergysolar.com"><span style='color:#000099'>Allan@positiveenergysolar.com</span></a></span><br><span style='font-size:10.0pt'>NABCEP Certified Photovoltaic Installer<br>NABCEP Certified Technical Sales Professional<br>New Mexico EE98J Journeyman Electrician<br>Founder and Chief Technology Officer<br><b>Positive Energy, Inc.</b><br>3209 Richards Lane (note new address)<br>Santa Fe, New Mexico 87507<br><b>505 424-1112</b><br><a href="http://www.positiveenergysolar.com/" target="_blank">www.positiveenergysolar.com</a></span> <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-right:722.25pt;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal>On 5/29/2013 9:01 AM, frenergy wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p class=MsoNormal>Hilton,<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> I have not been experiencing anything unusual in failure rates.....of course I have not caved to the up-front lower cost tease of Chinese PVs and have only sold USA made PVs built by manus in biz for decades. This choice has lost me only a few customers, maybe now they will come back. It seems interesting to me that you would mention 3 Chinese companies as 'first tier'. When I think of first tier I think of companies that have been around for much longer than that.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> You are absolutely right though, as an industry, "we" need to identify this problem and deal with it now, like now, lest we go the path of solar thermal in the 80's. Possibly the solar bandwagon has become overloaded?<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal> <o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal>Bill<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><img border=0 width=256 height=112 id="_x0000_i1025" src="cid:image002.jpg@01CE5C65.BAF14770"><o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt;margin-left:3.75pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>----- Original Message ----- <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:#E4E4E4'><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <a href="mailto:hiltondier@gmail.com" title="hiltondier@gmail.com">Hilton Dier III</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>To:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <a href="mailto:re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org" title="re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org">re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Sent:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> Wednesday, May 29, 2013 6:08 AM<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Subject:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> [RE-wrenches] Defective modules<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div><p class=MsoNormal>Greetings wrenches,<br><br>I'm sure many of you have seen this article in the New York Times: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/business/energy-environment/solar-powers-dark-side.html?hp&_r=1&">http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/business/energy-environment/solar-powers-dark-side.html?hp&_r=1&</a><br><br>I have already gotten an email from a panicked client asking about canceling his project.<br><br>First question: Has anybody dealt with defective modules lately, and if so, what brands?<br>Second question: How much does this affect first-tier manufacturers (Trina, Suntech, Yingli...) and how much of this is "no-name" brands?<br>Third question: Is this restricted to a particular technology such as thin film?<br><br>And the big question: How do we deal with this? I can imagine the fossil fuel and nuclear industries promoting this story with enthusiasm.<br><br>Thanks,<br><br>Hilton<br><br><o:p></o:p></p><pre>-- <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Hilton Dier III<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Renewable Energy Design<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Partner, Solar Gain LLC<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>453 East Hill Rd.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Middlesex, VT 05602<o:p></o:p></pre></blockquote></blockquote></div></body></html>