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<DIV>All this figuring makes my head ache...</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>I agree with Bob. If someone is willing to pay me
to review their economic analysis, I may take the consulting job. I say "may"
because the client has to give me other reasons for spending my time
(remember, gang, all you really have is time so spend it wisely). I sense that
this client is trying to show how smart he is not to invest in solar. I wonder
if he did an economic analysis on having children or a hobby like golf or
boating?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>When a client asked me about PV economics, I
ask:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>- What are your reasons for wanting to go
solar?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>- What are your reasons for hesitating going
solar?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>- How much money do you have to invest in a PV
system?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>If they won't tell me how much money they
have available, I'm like a real estate broker or computer system sales person. I
have to know their budget so I can match them up with the right system for them.
If they still won't tell me, I tell them that I am like a doctor. I have to know
their budget to diagnose their situation and prescribe the right solution. If
they still won't tell me, I say I am sorry but I can't help
you.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>People do things for all kinds of reasons, but
people are driven to do things by their emotions. We fall in love and then make
reasons why. We want PV, or children, or a boat and then make reasons
why.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>When your prospects throw around a lot of
numbers that show PV does not make economic sense, you might want to give them
Udall's classis essay (below). 99 out of 100 times they will not change their
position. Time to move on. Life is short.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial>Joel Davidson</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>THE NEW
FRONTIER: GRID-CONNECTED PV by James R. Udall, 1998</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>For two decades
the photovoltaic industry has prospered by meeting the needs of off-grid
homesteaders. From <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1:place>New
Mexico</st1:place></st1:State> to
<st1:State><st1:place>California</st1:place></st1:State>, the backwoods has been
the proving ground, where new products were launched, used, and relentlessly
refined. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Now, thanks in
part to the movement Home Power helped spawn, solar is ready for the main event.
The time is ripe to transplant PV, and the energy awareness it represents, from
the Sierras to the suburbs. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Nations like
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Indonesia</st1:place></st1:country-region> and
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Mongolia</st1:place></st1:country-region>
conceivably could use PV to leapfrog from the Stone Age to the Information Age,
without weaving a national transmission web. But the grid is a done deal in the
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> Of the 100
million households in this country, 99.5 million are connected to utility wires.
If PV is to achieve its full potential it must make inroads into this vast
virgin market, the new frontier. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>SOLAR JIHAD
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Last June,
President Clinton announced a program to install a million solar roofs by 2010.
That’s right, a million. That means the nation must install 230 solar hot water
and PV systems every day for the next twelve years. No rest on Sunday for weary
wrenches. This isn’t a program, it’s a crusade. A solar jihad. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Who are the
"early adopters" who will buy these systems? What’s the best way to tap the
emerging market for grid-connected PV? In this article I take a stab at
answering those questions. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>I direct the
Community Office for Resource Efficiency, a nonprofit energy office in
<st1:place><st1:City>Aspen</st1:City>,
<st1:State>Colorado</st1:State></st1:place>. Last year we sold and installed 5
grid-connected PV systems, ranging in size from 800 watts to 4.5 kilowatts; in
price, from $4,200 to $35,000. Four systems were installed in the service
<st1:place><st1:PlaceType>territory</st1:PlaceType> of <st1:PlaceName>Holy Cross
Electric Association</st1:PlaceName></st1:place>, a rural co-op. Four is hardly
a down payment on one million, but it’s enough to give Holy Cross more
grid-connected, residential PV systems than any of the 932 co-ops in the
<st1:country-region><st1:place>United States</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
As I said, it’s a virgin market.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></SPAN></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>THE CLIENTS
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Who’d we sell
these systems to? Our clients ran the gamut. They included a millionaire
shipping executive who flies his own plane; a Forest Service employee and his
preschool teacher wife, who run marathons, drive a Geo Metro, and practice
voluntary simplicity; an architect remodeling his house; a former ski patroller;
and me. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Average age: 45.
We’re all homeowners, of course. (The grid-tied renter market is a mirage.
Ascension Technologies has, however, begun to sell a 4x6 foot, 250-watt module
with integral AC inverter that a renter might want to own.) As a group we differ
in many ways. What we had in common was a willingness to think outside the box
and the means to invest in the future. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>BATTERIES NOT
REQUIRED </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Solar advocates
delight in bashing utilities. But for all its faults, the industry has strung an
amazing amount of wire. Rarely is an American more than 50 feet from an
electrical outlet. It’s an everyday miracle we take for granted. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>From an
engineering perspective, the grid is a tremendous resource. A grid-tied PV
system will be more efficient, arguably greener, and certainly cheaper than a
backwoods one. More efficient because the inverter can track the modules’
"maximum power curve" rather than the lower voltage needed to recharge
batteries. Arguably greener because you don’t need batteries, which contain
caustic chemicals, emit sulfurous gases, and eventually wear out. And much
cheaper because, with the grid as backup, you don’t have to buy batteries,
charge controller, control panel, or generator. Right there, you’ve knocked up
to $5,000 off a typical stand-alone system. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Getting the
price down is critical, because no one on the grid needs PV, at least not in the
same way an off-grid homeowner needs it. We’ve already got juice. It may be from
a nuke, it may be from a coal plant, it may be hydro (or "embodied salmon"), but
it’s there. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>To sell
grid-connected PV systems you’ve got to get the price down and then help
prospective customers understand that solar is to coal as a croissant is to a
Twinkie. On a gut level, many people already grasp the key difference between
fossil fuels and renewable energy. One is stealing from our kids, the other
isn’t. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face=Arial></FONT></SPAN> </P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>DOLLARS AND
SENSE </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>We lumped our
orders together and bargained aggressively for good prices. The 800 watt
system—a Solarex prototype subsidized by the U.S. Department of Energy—cost
$4,200 installed. The two 1.35 kilowatt systems we installed cost $11,500. My
1.8 kilowatt system cost $13,000.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>And the 4.5 kilowatt system, the largest residential grid-tied system in
<st1:State><st1:place>Colorado</st1:place></st1:State>, was $35,000. A contract
from Sandia National Laboratory covered our logistical costs. Again, someone
buying a single system might not be able to match these prices. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>I’ll return to
economics in a moment, but first a word on hardware.</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>OFF THE
SHELF</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Here again let’s
doff our hat to the backwoods bunch and the PV industry. Much of the gear we
installed in 1997 was unavailable or unaffordable in 1987. Early PV systems were
cobbled up and soldered together. Products were primitive, assembly an
adventure. Buying a PV system now is like buying brake pads at
<st1:City><st1:place>NAPA</st1:place></st1:City>: it’s all off-the-shelf,
readily available at increasingly reasonable prices. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Four of our
systems used Siemens 75-watt modules and Trace inverters. The fifth featured
Solarex’ thin-film Millenia modules and an Omnion inverter. The Siemens modules
carry a 25-year warranty. This was a big selling point. What other product is
guaranteed to last that long? I’m 46, these modules could easily outlive me and
become heirlooms. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Trace’s familiar
SW4048 has been modified for utility-tied applications. It comes with an
attractive, powder-white weatherproof outdoor enclosure. Bells and whistles
include automatic power tracking, evening shutdown and morning wake up,
under/over voltage and frequency shutdown, plus AC and DC disconnects. AC output
is either 120 or 240 volts. We used 120 volts on our smaller systems, 240 on the
largest. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>The inverter
eats 44 to 64 volts DC. In practice, this means wiring three modules in series,
then running the series groups in parallel to the inverter’s DC side. After
being converted to AC, the electricity flows through a PV meter and then to a
breaker in the home’s electric panel. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Pat Kiernan of
Eco Electric in Basalt, <st1:State><st1:place>Colorado</st1:place></st1:State>,
a master electrician and electrical engineer, supervised the installations. The
tidy outcomes reflect his thoughtful and meticulous approach. Heatstroke to
hypothermia, Pat endured it all. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>We used
nonmetallic conduit between modules, fuses for each series of three modules and
ground-fault protection on our roof-mounted systems. (The latter is required by
code, but does it provide protection proportional to its $500 expense? We remain
unconvinced.) The Siemens modules have integral bypass diodes, but we added
isolation diodes to each series group in two systems that are prone to partial
shading. That way shaded panels can’t be fried by the rest of a sunlit array.
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>POLE MOUNTS,
ROOF MOUNTS </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Two systems were
pole-mounted, three went on a roof. Direct Power and Water Corporation built our
sturdy, attractive racks. The pole-mounted racks are supported by 4- or 6-inch,
Schedule 40 steel pipe, cemented 3 feet in the ground. The racks are adjustable
from 15 to 65 degrees. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>On the
roof-mounted systems Direct Power lengthened the racks’ front legs so that the
modules would stand 2 feet above the roof and thus out of the snow. We fixed the
4.5 kilowatt roof-mounted system at a 35-degree tilt, steep enough to shed snow,
flat enough to maximize year-round production. The other roof-mounted system is
seasonally adjustable.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>NET
METERING</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Some utilities
object to net metering. Usually the issue isn’t money but control. They don’t
want your juice on their wires. Or, they don’t want to set a precedent that
could come back to haunt them. There are some distributed generation
technologies coming down the pike that utilities definitely won’t want to net
meter, including fuel cells and 50-kilowatt microturbines the size of beer kegs.
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>We were lucky.
The two utilities we worked with, Holy Cross Electric and Glenwood Spring
Municipal, were open-minded. After some analysis and friendly discussion, they
agreed to net meter. At <st1:time Hour="12" Minute="0">midday</st1:time>, when
the systems are producing more electricity than the home can use, the meter
spins backward. At night or during high usage it spins in the normal direction.
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>SHOCKS &
SAFETY</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Utility linemen
don’t want PV systems backfeeding the grid during a power outage when they are
working on supposedly dead lines. Both the Trace and Omnion inverters address
this with multiple safeguards. Since these sine wave inverters are designed to
sense, sync, and dance with the grid, it’s impossible for them to operate
without it. That means they can’t zap a lineman during an outage. It also means
that a grid-tied PV system won’t provide backup power. If you wanted this
feature you could add a battery pack, charge controller, and transfer switch. We
didn’t because of the expense, and because the grid is up 99.7% of the time.
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>DOLLARS AND
SENSE, PART TWO </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>PV prices have
fallen enough to bring them tantalizingly within reach. For most families, 35
grand for a PV system is out of the question. But 10 grand, 12 grand? Americans
routinely pay $3,000 for a four-pound laptop computer and up to $40,000 for a
sport-utility vehicle that loses thousands of dollars in value the moment it
leaves the dealer’s lot. Is a PV system more or less "cost effective" than a
Suburban? Understanding the emerging market for PVs forces us to re-examine
hoary stereotypes about customers’ ability and willingness to pay for solar
energy. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>IT’S NOT
COST-EFFECTIVE</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Gag me with a
spoon. If I heard it once, I heard it a dozen times: "What’s the payback?" I
heard it from an architect, rancher, engineer, and electrical inspector.
Dividing my system’s price by its production gave my brother-in-law his bottom
line: "It’s not earning its keep." The pernicious payback perspective plagues PV
people; I heard the now-familiar qualms from module and inverter manufacturers
alike. Even our installer Pat Kiernan, as devoted to solar as anyone I know,
quizzed me about the economics. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>If PV systems
get to $2 watt, everyone will do it and won’t ask why. Today, though, we’ve got
to wrestle with the economics. What’s-the-payback probably got its start after
the first Oil Crunch, when some builder was trying to figure out whether it made
sense to add fiberglass insulation to his next 2x4 shell. Duh. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Twenty years
later, what’s-the-payback has become a mindless chant. In no other realm does
this mentality prevail. Your wife’s pregnant!? Jeez, I’m sorry, kids aren’t cost
effective. Honey, let’s buy a new sofa. Have you done a cost-benefit
analysis?</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>We’ve been
brainwashed, infected with bean counter disease. When I began this project a
year ago, I knew that PV was not "cost-effective," but I ran spreadsheets to
prove it. I fiddled with discount rates to figure out how much less cost
effective it was with 5% money than with 10% money. As I debated whether to buy
a system myself, I chewed my pencil down to a nub trying to justify the
investment. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>It was
impossible. Buying a grid-connected PV system is folly. Why pay 25 cents a
kilowatt-hour for solar power when you can buy coal power for 7? Are you
brain-dead, a moon rock? PV is cost-effective for cannabis growers, dirt-poor
Haitians, Soviet cosmonauts, Everest climbers, Indonesian peasants, and the Mars
Rover. As for the rest of you, forget it.</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>CHEAP
POWER</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>To understand
why grid-tied PV is not cost-effective, look at energy solutions that supposedly
are. Building 110 nuclear power plants before figuring out what to do with the
waste is cost effective. Drowning the <st1:place>Columbia River</st1:place> and
its priceless salmon runs is cost effective. Spending $50 billion a year to
defend the <st1:place>Persian Gulf</st1:place> oilfields is prudent. Strip
mining pays nice dividends;
<st1:State><st1:place>Wyoming</st1:place></st1:State> coal is literally cheaper
than dirt. <st1:City><st1:place>Chernobyl</st1:place></st1:City> was a superb
investment. Acid rain, ozone depletion, many happy returns. Burning enough
fossil fuel between now and 2100 to warm Earth 4 degrees makes fiscal sense;
just think, we’ll be able to grow wheat in <st1:place>Siberia</st1:place>.
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Conventional
energy economics is a value system masquerading as mathematics. At its heart is
one key assumption: the future is worthless and the environment doesn’t matter.
Fie on future generations, who needs 'em? What have my grandchildren done for
me? </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>For 80 years,
our culture has had cheap power on a pedestal. In most contexts, cheap means
"shoddy" or "second-rate." Cheap is schlock, cheap is shunned. Think of your own
purchasing behavior. Do you buy the cheapest ice cream, put powdered dairy
creamer in your coffee, drive a Yugo? Of course not. But when it comes to
electricity, cheap is best. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>If similar
thinking prevailed in the underwear industry, Calvin Klein would sell only
burlap bras and boxer shorts. Scratchy sure, but cheaper than cotton. A Public
Underwear Commission would ensure that he didn’t try to blend some pricey silk
garments with the burlap ones. If consumers complained of a rash, the PUC would
say, "Quit itching. Americans want cheap undies.</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Burlap is
best."</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>The cheap power
paradigm is bankrupt. It’s a fraud. Pathetic. Close to criminal. If you value
the future or the environment, PV is cost effective. If you don’t, it isn’t.
It’s that simple.</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>CAN THE SUBURBS
AFFORD SOLAR? </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>What would it
cost the average family (with an appropriately sloped roof) to get, say, half
their juice from the sun? Is that option affordable? </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Some historical
perspective is useful. When Thomas Edison began selling electricity a century
ago, he sold kilowatt-hours for $3.20 each, in today’s dollars. When my rural
electric co-op began service in 1943, ranchers willingly paid about 40 cents a
kilowatt-hour. Electricity rates in
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Germany</st1:place></st1:country-region> are 18
cents, in Japan 20 cents. In other words, many people have in the past paid, and
are today paying, close-to-solar prices for electricity. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Relative to
cheap coal (and ignoring global warming), solar may appear expensive. But in the
context of many budgets, it is quite affordable. Daily production from my system
will average 8 kilowatt-hours.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Each
kWh costs me 25 cents, compared to the 7 cents I pay for coal. The difference—18
cents—is my added cost. It works out to $1.44 a day, $42 per month, $518 per
year. That’s what it’s costing me to get 75% of my electricity from the sun.
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Break the bank?
Hardly. My family of five spends almost fifteen times that much on food, five
times that on automobiles, almost twice that on piano lessons. Any family that
can afford cable television or the Internet, could probably afford to get some
power from the sun.</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>HURDLING UPFRONT
COSTS </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>First cost
remains a huge hurdle. When you buy a PV system you are paying for 20 years of
energy upfront. If my family had to buy 20 years of groceries upfront we’d
starve. Until we can breach this barrier, grid-tied PV will remain a tough sell.
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>You can buy a
nice PV system for about $12-$15,000. Since that’s the cost of a late-model used
car, perhaps the auto industry offers some lessons. The first is to forget
payback. Cars depreciate rapidly.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>And yet, 15 million will be sold this year at an average price of almost
$20,000. Only 10% are bought with cash, while 60% are leased and 30% are
financed. Cash buyers are a market sliver. How does Ford get the rest of us into
the showroom? Rebates—cash back!—and cheap financing—1.9%, 2.9%, and so forth.
</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>To move PV into
the mainstream, we need ready financing.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>Many homeowners have (or qualify for) 9% home equity loans. But zilch
(zero-interest) loans would be even better. There’s some talk that low-interest
loans may become available through the Million Solar Roofs program. Let’s hope
so, for nothing would do more to catalyze that program and the Feds should put
money where mouth is. Installing PV on new homes and rolling the investment into
the mortgage is an exciting strategy, now being pursued by the Sacramento
Municipal Utility District. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Leasing is
another intriguing option, particularly for business customers who could write
the costs off as a business expense. Are there people who want to lease a PV
system for, say, 10 years? We hope to find out. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Rebates would
also jumpstart the market. The $3/watt buydown now available in
<st1:State><st1:place>California</st1:place></st1:State> should unleash a
torrent of orders. I can imagine people moving to the flake state just to take
advantage of this juicy deal.</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>BEYOND
COAL</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>As we were
installing my system, a class of students from Solar Energy International
arrived to help. One eager beaver, fresh from a lecture on
efficiency-and-renewables, chided me about some incandescent light bulbs in the
house. Caught by a frugalista, a compact fluorescent Nazi. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Most
grid-connected homes haven’t captured all their efficiency opportunities. Does
it make sense to add PV until they do? Good question. Our systems will meet
between 20% and 90% of their home’s energy needs. Not bad, could be better.
Wasting energy is our national pastime and in a perfect world we’d do a
whole-house energy retrofit first. But to my way of thinking every PV module
represents a small victory in the war on carbon. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that stabilizing the climate
will require 60% reductions in global carbon dioxide emissions. If that’s true,
by 2050 the world will need 11 Terawatts of carbon-free power, as much as we now
get from all fossil fuels. Visualize 1 trillion solar panels, stretching from
Earth to Saturn—and you’ll grasp why we need to get started today. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>An average
American home produces 25,000 pounds of CO2 each year due to its energy
consumption. How much could solar technologies reduce this CO2 footprint? I was
curious to find out, so in addition to installing a PV system, I added a solar
hot water heater, replaced an energy-inefficient refrigerator, tracked down
phantom loads, and improved my lighting. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>Before the
retrofit my house used approximately 7,000 kilowatt-hours of coal power per
year. After the retrofit, the house is on pace to use just 1,200 kWh, an 83%
reduction. Daily CO2 emissions have been lowered from 38 pounds to 6.5 pounds.
Over their 20-year lifetime, the solar water heater and PV system will avoid
230,000 pounds of CO2. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT
face=Arial>PERFORMANCE</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>So far all of
our grid-connected systems are performing flawlessly. Nary a glitch. With a
25-year module warranty, inverter reliability is the make-or-break maintenance
issue. Theoretically life on the grid should be less arduous for an inverter
than life off, since the grid can easily provide the heavy surges of power
needed to start a refrigerator, vacuum, table saw, or all three at once. Trace
inverters come with a 2-year warranty. We’ll buy a 3-year extension. After that,
well, we’ll hold our breath. </FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>THE ROAD
AHEAD</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>In
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Japan</st1:place></st1:country-region>, 10,000
people are on a waiting list to buy subsidized PV systems. The Japanese
government, which is putting $90 million a year into their rooftop program, has
identified PV as a strategic technology. Not significant—strategic. Take a memo,
Energy Secretary Pena. Ambitious PV programs are also underway in
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Germany</st1:place></st1:country-region>,
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Switzerland</st1:place></st1:country-region>, and
other European countries. The
<st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> is lagging,
but hopefully we’ll catch up. Someone once said of Americans, "Count on them to
do the right thing after they’ve tried everything else." We’re getting pretty
far down the list. Personally, I’m bullish on clean power. Living with PV is
instructive, and you soon come to understand that this technology is a gift to
the future.</FONT></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><o:p><FONT
face=Arial> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial>I’m writing this
on a crisp, cloudless December day. Though the sun is low and its arc is swift,
my array has been bathed in sunlight since dawn. As the sun sets, I go out to
check the day’s production. It’s 10 kilowatt-hours, enough to lift a pickup
truck 5,000 feet into the air. That’s also 10 pounds of coal left unburned, and
20 pounds of carbon dioxide not spewed into the atmosphere, there to linger a
century or more. If that’s the payback, I can live with it.</FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=reellison@gmail.com href="mailto:reellison@gmail.com">robert
ellison</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
title=re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org
href="mailto:re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org">RE-wrenches</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, July 27, 2009 7:36 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [RE-wrenches] Solar electric
generation system seems to make noeconomic sense</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>All this figuring makes my head ache, that being said. Here</DIV>
<DIV>goes.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>