<html><head><style type="text/css"><!-- DIV {margin:0px;} --></style></head><body><div style="font-family:times new roman,new york,times,serif;font-size:12pt"><div>Joel<br><br>Chinese quality will improve for sure and trust is something we ought to get used to. The Chinese own more US Treasuries than anyone breathing on this globe, so we are married at the wallet. If our government can have this type of relationship, it is only going to "grow" as time moves forward. I want to more call it a shotgun wedding of sorts- we both need each other and our parents (government) have decided it is going to be forever.<br><br>Not to digress down an economics discussion, but their sovereign fund is deeply embedded in our dollars, even though the yuan has gained more in value over the last 4-5 years, hurting their investment in "US". Our foreign deficit to them will continue, as our national debt was 41% of the economy last year.....now this is unsustainable.......we
are over leveraged as a society as a whole.........<br><br>I wonder who the dictators are anymore?<br></div><div style="font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br><div style="font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif; font-size: 12pt;"><font size="2" face="Tahoma"><hr size="1"><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">From:</span></b> Joel Davidson <joel.davidson@sbcglobal.net><br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> RE-wrenches <re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org><br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Sunday, June 7, 2009 3:05:48 PM<br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> Re: [RE-wrenches] Chinese solar cells and modules and pricing<br></font><br>
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<div><font size="2" face="Arial">Chinese quality will improve and price is
important, but I think that doing business with people who
you trust and respect comes first. Some of you remember Bill Lamb. The
Wm. Lamb Company was the world's first PV distributorship. Bill helped a
lot of us get started in the business. I learned a lot about PV and
business in general working for Bill. Here's a Bill Lamb true
story. Before moving to Camarillo, Arco Solar was in
Chatsworth about 16 miles from the Wm. Lamb Company so Arco referred a
lot of customers to us. In 1983 or 1984, Arco
sent three Arab gentlemen to us. They selected about $50,000
in solar modules and other equipment which was a big sale in those
days. One of the men pulled out cash and told Bill that
they plan to buy a lot more solar equipment and will
buy it all from him if he did not sell to Israel. Bill's reaction
was immediate. It was the only time I ever saw him get angry. He
told the men to go to hell and that he would never sell anything
to them. Then he walked out the building, got in his car, and drove
away leaving me with the three shocked men. They asked me
what to do. I told them that Bill was the boss and had the
final word so they left without buying anything. A few hours
later, Bill returned and I asked him if he refused to sell to the Arabs
because they were boycotting Israel. Bill said, "It's not just about
Israel. I refuse to do business with dictators."</font></div>
<div><font size="2" face="Arial">Joel Davidson</font></div>
<blockquote style="border-left: 2px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); padding-left: 5px; padding-right: 0px; margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 0px;">
<div style="font-family: arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 10pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none;">----- Original Message ----- </div>
<div style="background: rgb(228, 228, 228) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-family: arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 10pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"><b>From:</b>
<a rel="nofollow" title="electrichi01@yahoo.com" ymailto="mailto:electrichi01@yahoo.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:electrichi01@yahoo.com">Keith
Cronin</a> </div>
<div style="font-family: arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 10pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none;"><b>To:</b> <a rel="nofollow" title="re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org" ymailto="mailto:re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org" target="_blank" href="mailto:re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org">RE-wrenches</a> </div>
<div style="font-family: arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 10pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none;"><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, June 07, 2009 1:45 PM</div>
<div style="font-family: arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 10pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none;"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [RE-wrenches] Chinese solar
cells and modules and pricing</div>
<div><br></div>
<div style="font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">
<div>PV enthusiasts- <br><br>Perhaps a fresh perspective on these products
deserves some attention after the last few thoughts shared by Bill & Joel,
who are industry respected stalwarts that deserve and receive alot of respect
from me and the rest of us.<br>As some of us grew up when we thought Japanese
types of products- from toys to cars where less durable, they eventually
created fantastic products to be the envy of the world. Just look at most
electronic gadgets and cars 10 years ago to draw some distinctions.<br>A new
dawn has arrived, which parallels this analogy. The Chinese have been able to
import the technology and systems to develop world class modules. using alot
of the pick and place robots the other contenders are using. SunPower makes
the lions share of their products in the Philippines and I recall the building
is so large and long, that you can see the curvature of the earth.<br>Just as
the computer revolution started in the US, most of the parts and silicon
platforms have been made in Asia. Sure it can take time to polish the
products, but this is inevitable. China will continue to thrive and deliver
competitive products that will have quality attributes for years to come as
their population gets increased education and awareness of what the world
solar stage demands- inexpensive modules.<br><br>The PVUSA facility was circa
1986 and sold to David for a buck in 1997. Alot of innovation and
understanding came from those formative years and we as an industry are all
grateful. As Joel points out, if you are going with these types of products,
"check in" with your clients, as this is one of the ways to monitor any signs
of degradation. Yes, a Barrons report shared with me says many of the similar
things about our Chinese manus' thats hard to ignore: <br><br>
<div class="post-date">June 3, 2009, 1:53 pm</div>
<h2 class="post-title">China Solar Vendors Slash Module Prices, Analyst
Says</h2>
<div class="post-info">Posted by Eric Savitz </div>
<div class="post-content">
<p>Chinese solar vendors are offering modules for prices far below what most
investors likely suspect, according to <strong>Hapoalim Securities analyst Gordon
Johnson</strong>.</p>
<p>In a research note today, Johnson asserts that some of his “most trusted
industry contacts” say that companies like <strong>Yingli</strong> <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://online.barrons.com/quotes/main.html?symbol=yge"><font color="#0253b7">(YGE)</font></a>, <strong>Suntech</strong> <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://online.barrons.com/quotes/main.html?symbol=stp"><font color="#0253b7">(STP)</font></a> and <strong>Trina Solar</strong> <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://online.barrons.com/quotes/main.html?symbol=tsl"><font color="#0253b7">(TSL)</font></a> are offering modules for sale at
$1.70-$1.80/watt, or 1.21-1.28 Euros/watt. He notes that
at the recent <strong>Intersolar</strong> conference, the talk was that solar
modules were priced in the 1.60-1.70 Euros/watt range.</p>
<p>Johnson contends that U.S. investors may be underestimating the ability of
Chinese solar module companies to significantly lower their non-silicon costs
- specifically, by cutting wages. He writes that “we are hearing that Chinese
solar module factory workers are willing to work for little-to-no-pay” in
order to improve their company’s competitiveness and “as a matter of national
pride.” According to Johnson, volumes available at the lower price levels is
effectively unlimited.</p>
<p>Johnson, who already had been bearish on the sector, notes that there are
1.5 GW of solar module inventory in the channel, and that Spain, which in 2008
accounted for nearly 50% of global module consumption, “has basically gone to
zero.” His view: “At the risk of stating the obvious, this does not bode well
for U.S./European solar module vendors given the commodity underpinnings which
define this space,” he writes. “Assuming these prices stock, we believe solar
industry fundamentals are in bigger trouble than we expected this year.”</p>
<p>Johnson specifically advises taking short positions in
<strong>SunPower</strong> <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://online.barrons.com/quotes/main.html?symbol=spwra"><font color="#0253b7">(SPWRA)</font></a>, Q-Cells <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QCE.DE&="><font color="#0253b7">(QCE.DE)</font></a>, <strong>First Solar</strong> <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://online.barrons.com/quotes/main.html?symbol=fslr"><font color="#0253b7">(FSLR)</font></a> and <strong>SolarWorld</strong> <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=swv.de&="><font color="#0253b7">(SWV.DE)</font></a>.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>So- where does this leave us?</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Clearly this trend is going to continue and perhaps look at it another way.
If mod pricing will continue to decline over the next 10 years and infinity
and there are a few companies out there who will fail with their products, we
will have a declining cost basis for our client base to purchase new products
at perhaps a cost delta that is palatable and I envision below dirty power
rates. Will it be the $1 watt? This would be a huge milestone and we could be
there with growth and innovation leading the race. Increased cell efficiencies
with a new mix of products yet to be birthed......<br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>I am not trying to justify bad manufacturers from pumping out poor
products, but GM did it for quite a few years in the race to compete and now
we own (as a country or the treasury) 60% of the company, which could also be
worthless depending upon the tempo of our economy.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>The irony is everywhere. We used to be dissapointed that the Chinese
government had their hands in their private industries and where constantly
meddling, but we are not doing the same- autos, banking and insurance to name
a few.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>In light of this, even looking at a companies finacials, and peering into
the Chinese manus balance sheets could also be unclear, again, as the Barrons
reports suggests this might be not telling the whole story.<br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>So, the cost per watt conversation is the one we will have for some time,
as this is the leading metric and I think it is more than just a few pennies
per watt, but the delta is significantly wider. On the residential scale, of
the 2-5kW range, not as influencial, but do a 50kW and north of this and the
impact is tangible. in our free market economy you can understand a company
offering these products and really stinging the company offering Solarworld
(oh, wait - Arco, Siemens, Shell) for a particular project. Mods represent the
largest piece of the solar pies project costs, so it is plausible to look for
alternatives.<br></p>
<p><br></p>
<p>A way to navitage through this minefield of uncertanty, is we need as an
industry to perhaps move the conversation from cost per watt to a performance
based reality. If we buy power from the utility per kW, my vision is some day
we can orchestrate the same. This will greatly improve our field of interest
and everyone benefits when performace meets the expectation, regardless of
system size. Our treasury, at the fed and state levels will pay proportionatly
for actual energy created, levelizing the conversation about subsidies with
real time, empirical data to back up the efficacy of what we are doing.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>For a better tomorrow~</p>
<p><br></p>
<p>Keith<br></p></div></div>
<div style="font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br>
<div style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><font size="2" face="Tahoma">
<hr size="1">
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">From:</span></b> Joel Davidson
<joel.davidson@sbcglobal.net><br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> RE-wrenches
<re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org><br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Sunday, June 7, 2009 7:11:11
AM<br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> Re: [RE-wrenches]
Chinese solar cells and modules and pricing<br></font><br>I have a lot of
respect for Bill, not just because he sometimes agrees with me (smile), but
because he worked at Davis California PVUSA and other places and saw a lot of
innovative, but flawed PV. He knows first-hand that dozens of PV companies
and/or products have come and gone in the search for the $0.10/kWh holy
grail.<br><br>I wish the Chinese well, but am concerned about the wisdom of
buying Chinese modules. On the one hand, I welcome China into the league of
nations and support their progress toward democracy. Hopefully, Chinese
national and local dictators will grow up and become civilized. On the other
hand, latest reports from China, according to Hapoalim Securities analyst
Gordon Johnson, is that Chinese solar module factory workers are willing to
work for little-to-no-pay. There's a big difference between "volunteering" in
the war of economic imperialism against the West and the volunteer work
Wrenches perform in their communities and around the world.<br><br>But back to
nuts-and-volts. Last year China became the largest producer of crystalline
silicon solar cells. Although some companies admit that their modules are made
in China, few companies with factories outside of China say they build their
modules with cells outsourced from China. This is not all bad news because
crystalline silicon cells are some of the most stable products ever made.
However, you do have to protect yourself and your customers' investments,
especially if you are a California contractor required to give 10-year system
warranties. I recommend getting each module's IV curve, keeping the IV curves
in your customer file, performing pre-installation tests (at least Voc and
Isc), and performing annual systems inspections and tests. Look for cell-tab
corrosion, front and backsheet delamination, and discoloration. Most customers
will pay to see you once a year if your manner is professional and your
service charge is reasonable.<br><br>Joel Davidson<br><br><br>----- Original
Message ----- From: "Bill Brooks" <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:billbrooks7@yahoo.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:billbrooks7@yahoo.com">billbrooks7@yahoo.com</a>><br>To:
"'RE-wrenches'" <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org" target="_blank" href="mailto:re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org">re-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org</a>><br>Sent:
Saturday, June 06, 2009 10:19 PM<br>Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] Chinese solar
cells and modules and pricing<br><br><br>> All,<br>> <br>> How many
of these Chinese manufacturers will still be in existence in 5<br>> years
(probably less than half)? Are you really willing to risk a company<br>>
and reputation for a few pennies per watt? Certainly several of the
big<br>> companies are likely to survive, but you are playing a new game of
"Chinese<br>> roulette" with many of these companies.<br>> <br>>
These are manufacturing companies, not stable companies with a long past
and<br>> future. The value proposition is so dramatically different from a
major<br>> company to one of these Chinese manufacturing companies to make
the<br>> comparison nearly idiotic. Most of the installers using these
products have<br>> way more guts than I have. Many will find their guts on
the ground as the<br>> get disemboweled by bad choices. Don't you love the
imagery.<br>> <br>> Yingli's one of the big companies now, they might
survive. I'm sure they are<br>> learning every month that they proceed how
to better manufacture modules.<br>> They have been a player for two
years--no major problems--YET. How does a<br>> year in the field show that
a company is doing everything correctly? Oh, and<br>> their fuse size is 10
amps on an 8 amp Isc module. They obviously are not<br>> all that
sophisticated.<br>> <br>> Folks, you need to let the dumb contractors
screw up and buy the cheap<br>> stuff. Now, more than ever, you have to
sell on brand. The more the young<br>> Chinese stuff gets in the field and
craps out, the worse our industry is<br>> going to take it on the chin in
the public eye. It's just not worth the<br>> price difference. As Joel
points out, let the multi-MW projects make the<br>> stupid mistakes--that
will just scare away the capital investment--oh wait a<br>> minute--we
really need that.<br>> <br>>
Bill.<br><br>_______________________________________________<br>List sponsored
by Home Power magazine<br><br>List Address: <a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:RE-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org" target="_blank" href="mailto:RE-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org">RE-wrenches@lists.re-wrenches.org</a><br><br>Options
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