BP Solar Closes Thin Film Operations and some people thinkconspiracy [RE-w

[Joel Davidson]

Marco,
You are probably right. Companies invest in PV technology thinking that they can reduce cost, win the price race and get richer. Until the early 1980s, significant cost reductions were possible in a 5-year business plan time frame. Now, all of the easy cost reductions have been made unless you believe the monthly breakthrough announcements from Australia. The price of glass, aluminum, plastic, production equipment and labor have all gone up so the way to cut manufacturing cost significantly are in the cells and the process (which still does not reduce distribution and installation costs). There are 3 ways to reduce PV module production cost: increase conversion efficiency, increase throughput for economies of scale and decrease the amount of photoactive material. Solec's HIT (aSi on single crystal) increases conversion efficiency but adds process steps. ECD triple junction increases efficiency but is still as expensive and less efficient as Cz-PV cells that are 500X thicker. Sharp is
increasing volume, but BP (and Shell) are shutting down production lines and firing workers "to continue sales growth of roughly 30% per year." Conspiracy? I doubt it. Self-interest? Absolutely. "Follow the money trail" to a few hundred individuals and families who control over 90% of the world's wealth and power. Some want change. Most want the status quo. Some want PV. Most don't care. So what else is new?
Joel Davidson
"Not all change is better, but nothing gets better without change."

"Mangelsdorf, Marco" wrote:

> Since it's unlikely we're going to hear directly from our friends at BP Solar on this issue, let me venture forward some non-conspiratorial, unmysterious reasons that come from my industry sources as to why they're closing out the Apollo and Millenia lines: they've been a money loser these past years.  Prima facie, BP Solar management is choosing to focus on those lines (mono and polycrystalline Si) which make financial sense for them.  How much more "definitive" must this logic be?  A-Si and Cd Te hasn't panned out as a profitable enterprise for BP Solar.  Does this bode poorly for thin-films in general?  This remains to be seen.  Maybe First Solar will finally get their act together.  Maybe Pacific Solar in the land-down-under will make it big with thin-film spray-on crystalline Si...in a year or two or three or...But for now, one company, BP Solar, has made the decision to stick with crystalline Si.  Give it rest as to the REAL reason they're stopping a non-profitable section of
> their product line.
>
>
>
> marco
>
> ProVision Technologies, Inc.
>
> Hilo, Hawai'i
>
>
>
>          Maybe Joel was right, they're just not
>
>         that forward thinking at BP and they have shot themselves--through their
>
>         Millenia module--into their feet.  What IS indeed the real story?  It IS a
>
>         huge move financially and otherwise for BP, and their must be a more
>
>         definitive statement in there somewhere.  I haven't seen anything convincing
>
>         yet.
>
>
>
>         Peter
>
>         ASAP POWER!

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