California energy [RE-wrenches]

[Bill Brooks]

Hi Wrenches,

My understanding from talking with some fairly high level folks in the
utility industry is that Carl's story is not far from the truth. With the
price of natural gas being depressed for so long, prospecting for new gas
has all but stopped. Existing well are running dry and it will be 4-6 months
before new supplies come on line (maybe in time for summer--maybe not). When
the new supplies come on line, the prices will drop again, but not to the
same low level.

The problem is not necessarily natural gas reserves, as Drake points out,
but the transmission of gas long distances. Keep in mind that natural gas is
not a dense energy form and requires large pipelines to move relatively
small amounts of energy. In the late 1970's this was seen as such a big
problem that natural gas was banned for the production of electricity. Some
people believe that this ban will resurface. The fundamental problem is that
no matter how big you build the pipelines, the appetite of electric
generating facilities will always tend to outstrip your ability to build
pipelines.

Since the conversion efficiency of these plants are at best 40% (steam
boiler) to 50% (combined cycle), it is always less than other needed uses
like hot water for home and restaurants, space heating, etc...

Bottom line--natural gas is the underlieing cause for the crisis in
California and we are trying to use electricity generated by natural gas to
bail us out. This is good news for us in the solar business because it means
that their current plans will not fix the problem.

It looks like the solar business in California will be good for some time.

Bill Brooks


> -----Original Message-----
> From: Drake Chamberlin - Electrical Energy
> [mailto:solar at eagle-access.net]
> Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 3:41 PM
> To: RE-wrenches at topica.com
> Subject: Re: California energy [RE-wrenches]
>
>
> Hi Wrenches,
>
> I find it hard to believe that California is running out of natural
> gas.  Before becoming an electrician, I was a geologist, and worked a
> couple of years in the California oil fields.
>
> Often we had to weight up the drilling mud to prevent blowouts,
> due to the
> intense gas pressure.  But  if we didn't find oil, the well would be
> plugged and called a dry hole.
>
> I don't claim to know what is going on here.  Talking with people at the
> time who seemed to be in the know, it was claimed that the petroleum
> companies were waiting for oil to run out before selling the gas.   Good
> theory.
>
> Drake
>
> At 11:15 AM 02/18/2001 -0800, you wrote:
> >Hi wrenches: I ran across this interesting statement in someones
> >posting to another group, dont know how true it is . Carl
> >
> >California's electricity problem is caused by a shortage of natural
> >gas, as gas
> >runs low there is not enough pressure in the pipelined to allow its
> >generating
> >plants to run, we are being told that the plants are down for
> >maintenance-where
> >they are down for lack of gas.
> >That is being kept from the people so as not to cause a panic.
> >Natural gas can be liquefied and imported from overseas but there are
> >no ships
> >available that do not already have long-term leases.
> >Natural gas generally can only be shipped thru pipelines over land.
> >
> >California's problem is predicted to become much worse peaking in mid
> >summer and
> >lasting for two years.
> >That shock should cause California to over-react to energy so that
> >when the
> >global energy shortage hits in about 4 years, California will be the
> >least
> >affected.
> >
> >
> >=====
> >
> >Land and Sea Solar, Renewable Energy Systems.  Email:
> >carl at landandseasolar.com.   Phone:831-252-5040
> >website:http://www.landandseasolar.com
> >
> >
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 michael.welch at homepower.com

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